The cherry sector in the United States is facing changes in global supply and market dynamics, with increased production from China and ongoing competition from Turkey affecting export performance.
Industry data for 2025 indicate that the traditional export model, which relied on premium large-size cherries, is under pressure. According to industry analyst Welcome Sauer, China has expanded production rapidly, while US output has remained stable. "China, over the course of just a few years, has now become much larger than the U.S. production of cherries. Turkey has always been a major player, but this year [Turkey] had a freeze in the spring, which dropped its production 60%. And [the U.S.], as an industry, had difficulty achieving a price in our export markets for high-quality fruit."
Export volumes previously destined for China were redirected to markets including South Korea, Taiwan, and Mexico, with lower returns. Sauer noted that pricing in Mexico ranged between US$20 and US$25 per box, reflecting lower-margin sales.
"What normally would have gone to China at good firm prices ended up in other countries," Sauer said.
Market dynamics were also affected by crop size distribution. Larger 9.5-row fruit, typically used for export, experienced price pressure due to higher volumes and reduced demand. Smaller sizes, including 10 and 10.5-row fruit, remained focused on domestic markets.
Seasonal overlap with California production added further pressure. Expansion of early-season varieties in California has reduced the export window for Pacific Northwest growers. These early varieties yield six to seven tons per acre, impacting returns due to higher production costs.
Sauer highlighted a strong link between volume and pricing, with a 90 per cent correlation indicating that higher volumes result in lower prices. He noted that this reduces the impact of marketing efforts when supply increases.
Historically, reduced supply years supported pricing, but this pattern is changing as global production increases. "It used to be said that every four or five years we'd have one of these shock-event years, and it would pay for the next four or five [years]," Sauer said.
In contrast, yellow cherries have shown a different pricing structure. Sauer noted stable demand across varying volumes. "The market is taking [yellow cherries] at a higher price, and they're not dropping the price to sell yellow cherries."
The data indicate ongoing adjustments in export flows and pricing structures as global supply continues to evolve.
Source: Growing Produce
