The potential imposition of an additional tariff of up to 50% on Brazilian imports by the United States, set to take effect on August 1, 2025, has raised concerns across Brazil's fresh produce sector. Among the most impacted products are fresh fruits, with the proposed measure affecting export revenues and potentially causing surpluses and pressure on farmgate prices.
Brazilian fresh fruit sectors initiated suspensions of new contracts and restricted business to the spot market in response to tariff uncertainty. The mango segment feels the initial impact, with its critical U.S. export window starting in August, while grape exports, beginning in the second half of September, face similar risks. Exporters report shipment delays and cancellations.
Before the tariff announcement, 2025 projections for fresh fruit exports showed optimism supported by a favorable exchange rate and production recovery across several crops. However, the outlook has turned uncertain.
Lucas De Mora Bezerra from the HFBrasil/Cepea team highlights, "The optimistic forecast has been replaced by growing concerns. In addition to the expected drop in U.S. sales, there is a risk of supply-demand imbalances in key international markets, which could push producer prices even lower."
The measure threatens global trade flows, with fewer exports to the U.S. potentially redirecting fruits to the European Union or domestic markets, overloading traditional channels, and affecting producer prices. Uncertainty also surrounds Brazil's fruit imports amid global trade shifts. The Hortifruti Brasil/Cepea team emphasizes the urgency of a coordinated diplomatic response to revise or exempt Brazilian horticultural products from tariffs, highlighting the strategic importance for both Brazil and the U.S. in maintaining the stability of the agri-food chain.
Source: HF Brasil
