The 2023-2024 Florida all orange forecast released today by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board is 19.8 million boxes, unchanged from the February forecast. If realized, this will be 25 percent more than last season's final production. The forecast consists of 6.80 million boxes of non-Valencia oranges (early, mid-season, and Navel varieties) and 13.0 million boxes of Valencia oranges. An 8-year regression was used for comparison purposes. All references to "average", "minimum", and "maximum" refer to the previous 10 seasons, excluding the 2017-2018 season, which was affected by Hurricane Irma, and the 2022-2023 season, which was affected by Hurricanes Ian and Nicole. Average fruit per tree includes both regular bloom and the first late bloom.
Non-Valencia oranges 6.80 million boxes
The forecast of non-Valencia production is unchanged at 6.80 million boxes. The Row Count survey conducted February 26-27, 2024, showed 98 percent of the early and mid-season non-Valencia rows, excluding Navels, are harvested. The Navel forecast, included in the non-Valencia portion of the forecast is 200,000 boxes.
Valencia oranges 13.0 million boxes
The forecast of Valencia production is unchanged from the February forecast at 13.0 million boxes. Current fruit size is below average and is projected to be below average at harvest, requiring 260 pieces to fill a 90-pound box. Current droppage is above average and projected to be above average at harvest. Harvest of Valencia oranges is still in the early stages.
All grapefruit 2.20 million boxes
The forecast of all grapefruit production is decreased 200,000 from February to 2.20 million boxes. The red grapefruit forecast is lowered 200,000 to 1.90 million boxes. The white grapefruit forecast is unchanged at 300,000 boxes. The Row Count survey conducted February 26-27, 2024, indicated 84 percent of grapefruit rows are harvested.
Tangerines and tangelos 500,000 boxes
The forecast for tangerines and tangelos is lowered 50,000 from the February forecast and is now 500,000 boxes, 4 percent more than last season's utilization of 480,000 boxes. This forecast number includes all certified tangerine and tangelo varieties.
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Source: nass.usda.gov
