The 2023-24 California forecast for only the Tango and W. Murcott Afourer Mandarin varieties is 21.0 million 40-lb. cartons. This forecast is based on the results of the 2023-24 Mandarin Objective Measurement (O.M.) Survey, which was conducted from July 1 to September 1, 2023. Estimated fruit set per tree, fruit diameter, trees per acre, bearing acreage, and mandarins per box were used in the statistical models estimating production.
Survey data indicated a fruit set per tree of 593, up 8% from the previous year. The average September 1 diameter was 1.244 inches, down 7% from last year for these varieties. Bearing acreage is estimated at 31,000, which results in a yield of 677 40-lb. cartons per acre.
The start to the growing season saw historic amounts of rainfall including precipitation from Hurricane Hilary, which brought relief to the state’s drought. Continuous storms delayed the start of the season and may have contributed to smaller fruit size compared to the same week last year.
Survey sample
A sample of 300 Tango and W. Murcott Afourer Mandarin groves were randomly selected proportional to county and variety bearing acreage, with 280 of these groves utilized in this survey. Once a grove was randomly chosen and grower permission was granted, two trees were randomly selected from each grove.
