The same problems that beset apple production in 2020/21, especially labor shortages, could persist into 2021/2022. This is expected to constrain production increases, with 2021/22 production forecast at 578,000 tons. Although this is five percent up on the 2020/2021 crop, primarily because of the increased harvested area, it still remains substantially below the record crop harvested in 2019/20. Exports are also forecast to increase to 380,000 tons (up seven percent), but this would still be below the levels reached pre-COVID-19.
It is likely labor shortages at harvest will remain for the 2021/2021 harvest. Increased shipping costs and unreliability of shipping schedules also look set to continue. This, combined with increased post-harvest grading and packing costs, will put pressure on orchard-gate returns. As the apple sector in New Zealand is primarily orientated to production of apples for export, any blocks of apples with older varieties such as Braeburn (with forecast weak in-market pricing) may be voluntarily reduced at harvest or not harvested at all.
Crop expectations tempered
Although early indications were for a near-record New Zealand apple crop in 2020/2021, a number of factors tempered expectations, and production is now estimated to have slumped six percent from the previous year to 553,000 tons. Hailstorms caused widespread damage in key apple areas, but even more important was the impact on production and exports caused by severe staffing shortages during the harvest.
The shortages were a result of New Zealand’s international border closures because of COVID19, limiting the number of short-term Pacific Islands’ workers able to enter New Zealand. This meant that orchardists had to limit the number of harvest picks in each orchard block, which in turn reduced the volume of export-quality fruit.
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Source: apps.fas.usda.gov
