The set price for new apples from cold storage directly affects the market conditions of new apples. That is why everyone pays attention to apples in storage. Last year the price of fresh apples started out rather high when the harvest began because the enthusiasm of visiting traders was very high. That is why the price continued to rise. Furthermore, because visiting traders remained enthusiastic despite a high purchase price, that is why everyone was so optimistic about this year.
The volume of apples in storage is about 10% higher than last year. And market conditions are still rather weak. It is difficult to believe that the apples in storage will be sold out by October when the new harvest comes in. Furthermore, in June a number of other fruits will enter the market and that will make competition more fierce.
In previous years the price of apples from storage was roughly 0.5 yuan [0.08 USD] per 0.5 kg lower than the price of fresh apples when they arrived on the market. That is to say, if apples from storage sell for 1 yuan [0.15 USD] per 0.5 kg, then the price of fresh apples will be around 1.5 yuan [0.23 USD] per 0.5 kg.
Cold weather had very little impact on the Chinese apple industry this year. Frost damage happens every year, but this year the damage was limited to less than 1% of the overall production volume. That is why people in the apple industry expect the overall production volume to break the record of 40 million tons.
The cost price of apples continues to rise because of inflation as well as the rising cost of pesticide, fertilizer, and labor. When the apple production volume reaches a record high, then the price is likely to drop. On top of that, the apple reserves are unlikely to sell out before fresh apples enter the market. All of these factors will have a direct impact on the market price of late-season red Fuji apples in October.
Source: wemp.app [Fruit Information Online]