Despite claims by the World Trade Organization, predicting that the pandemic will dampen world trade in the range of nine to 14 percent in 2020, the outlook of Tanzania’s exports of avocados remain promising.
However, exports of this crop are projected to be lower than in a situation without the Covid-19 pandemic, according to a report titled ‘Tanzania’s Trade in Times of Covid-19: an Analysis for the Avocado, Coffee, Spices and Tea Sector’. The report was created by the International Trade Centre (ITC), being co-funded by the European Union and thr East African Community (EAC). It estimates that the losses are relatively small.
World Bank forecasts that Tanzania’s economy would grow by 5.5 percent in 2021 – up from its earlier estimate of 2.5 percent for last year. After shrinking 4.3 percent in 2020, the world economy is projected to grow by four percent this year.
The report says in 2024, avocado exports are expected to be only about one percent lower than in a situation without the pandemic. Export potential values for 2024 suggest that most of Tanzania’s opportunities to increase avocado exports lie in Europe.
Going by the 2019 ITC business survey on non-tariff measures (NTMs) conducted in Tanzania, 88 percent of avocado exporters face difficulties with NTMs. Key challenges, the report says, include product certification, high packaging costs and quality standards.