The USDA has released its April 2026 citrus forecast, indicating adjustments across key producing states, with updated estimates for oranges, grapefruit, lemons, and tangerines for the 2025-2026 season.
In Florida, total orange production is forecast at 12.2 million boxes, up 200,000 boxes from the January estimate. This includes 4.70 million boxes of non-Valencia oranges and 7.50 million boxes of Valencia oranges. If realised, overall output would be 1 per cent lower than last season's revised production.
Non-Valencia orange production in Florida is forecast at 4.70 million boxes, reflecting an increase of 200,000 boxes. Harvest is complete, and estimates are based on utilisation. Valencia orange production remains unchanged at 7.50 million boxes, with final fruit size below average at 257 pieces per 90-pound box and droppage at 46 per cent.
At the national level, U.S. all orange production is forecast at 61,610 thousand boxes, compared with 58,400 thousand boxes in the January estimate. California accounts for 48,500 thousand boxes, Texas 910 thousand boxes, and Florida 12,200 thousand boxes.
Grapefruit production in Florida is forecast at 1.25 million boxes, up 50,000 boxes from January. Red grapefruit is estimated at 1.17 million boxes, while white grapefruit is reduced to 80,000 boxes. U.S. grapefruit production is forecast at 7,550 thousand boxes, with California at 4,300 thousand boxes and Texas at 2,000 thousand boxes.
Lemon production in Florida is forecast at 900,000 boxes, up 29 per cent from the previous estimate. Across the United States, lemon production is expected to reach 27,850 thousand boxes, with California accounting for 26,000 thousand boxes and Arizona 950 thousand boxes.
Tangerine and tangelo production in Florida is forecast at 450,000 boxes. U.S. production is projected at 30,450 thousand boxes, with California producing 30,000 thousand boxes.
Production components in Florida show 6,707 thousand non-Valencia bearing trees with 408 fruit per tree and a droppage of 40 per cent, while Valencia oranges have 13,972 thousand bearing trees, 288 fruit per tree, and a droppage of 46 per cent.
Fruit size distribution data for Valencia oranges indicates a shift toward smaller sizes compared to 2025, with 28.3 per cent of fruit in the 100-count category and 31.3 per cent in the 125-count category.
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For more information:
USDA
Tel: +1 407 648 6013
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www.nass.usda.gov
