Avocado prices in Mexico City declined by nearly 27 per cent year on year, driven by higher domestic availability, while exports to the United States increased ahead of the Super Bowl. Retail and market prices in the capital currently average MX$55 per kg (about US$3.20), compared with MX$75 per kg (about US$4.40) in January 2025, according to data from the Agrifood Information Service of the Ministry of Agriculture. This represents a price decrease of 26.7 per cent.
The decline has been linked to higher supply during the final months of 2025 and early 2026, supported by favourable weather conditions and larger harvest volumes across producing regions. Increased availability in the domestic market contributed to lower prices, particularly in large consumption centres such as Mexico City. Higher production levels also allowed a greater share of avocados to remain in the national market, increasing competition across wholesale, public, and retail channels.
At the same time, exports to the United States expanded. The Association of Avocado Producers and Exporting Packers of Mexico reported a projected 127,000 tons of avocados destined for the U.S. market during the four weeks leading up to the Super Bowl. This volume represents an 11 per cent increase year on year and a new record for the period. Of the total, 88 per cent is expected to originate from Michoacán and 12 per cent from Jalisco.
"This record projection is not just about volume, but about certainty in quality, size availability, promotional supply, and promotional programs designed to support our partners year-round, especially during peak demand moments like the Big Game," said Álvaro Luque.
During the first half of the year, U.S. demand for Mexican avocados typically strengthens around the Super Bowl, followed by Cinco de Mayo and the summer period. These events support consumption after a challenging second half of 2025, when competition increased in the U.S. market.
According to Manuel Cerda, this pressure was linked to oversupply in the U.S., with avocados arriving from Peru, Colombia, and California. He stated that importers were forced to sell 10 kg boxes for as little as US$14. "There is a large volume of avocados coming from Peru, Colombia, and California, all shipping significant quantities due to overproduction in those regions," he said. He also noted that size distribution affected demand, with a strong preference for size-48 fruit, while Mexican avocados tend to be smaller.
On sustainability and compliance, export organisations reported continued actions focused on traceability, phytosanitary standards, and labour conditions. Initiatives included reforestation programs in Michoacán and Jalisco, environmental monitoring systems covering more than 180,000 hectares of avocado orchards, and the introduction of the VELAGRO Labour Certification for Agro-Exports. The certification covers the entire avocado production chain, from planting through export, with a focus on working conditions and compliance.
Source: Mexico Business News
