The 2025 winter lettuce season in the São Paulo green belt is approaching its conclusion with returns below expectations, and growers are already reducing investment for the 2025/26 summer cycle, which begins in the coming days.
The winter cycle started in mid-June and has now reached almost six months of prices below production costs for loose-leaf lettuce (crespa) in Ibiúna and Mogi das Cruzes. In Ibiúna, from June through 14 November, the average farmgate price for loose-leaf lettuce was US$0.13 per head (R$0.69), while average production costs are estimated at US$0.19 per head (R$1.00). The 2024 winter season also recorded losses, with profitability at minus 5 per cent. In 2025, profitability has reached around minus 32 per cent.
Price drops during winter are common, as productivity tends to increase in the period. However, technology adoption in the sector, especially the expansion of protected cultivation and hydroponic systems, has increased output beyond typical levels. This has created marketing challenges, with excess lettuce and cases of fields being disced under.
Among cultivated types, iceberg lettuce has maintained a small positive margin, although not enough to offset overall losses due to higher production complexity and a longer development cycle.
Given these conditions, growers are cautious about the next planting cycle. Many report plans to reduce initial planted areas for the 2025/26 season, which will begin harvesting around mid-December.
Source: HF Brasil
