The U.S. Department of Agriculture's National Agricultural Statistics Service (USDA-NASS) released its 2025 California Almond Objective Measurement Report on Thursday, projecting a crop of 3.0 billion pounds. This marks a 7% increase over the May Subjective Forecast and a 10% rise from last year's harvest of 2.73 billion pounds.
"This Objective Measurement reflects the hard work by California almond growers during uncertain times," said Clarice Turner, president and CEO of the Almond Board of California. "While shipping has remained strong, uncertainty around future trade policies persists. We continue working with partners to promote fair and stable trade so California almonds remain accessible worldwide."
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The 2024 harvest fell 2.5% short of last year's Objective Estimate, highlighting the challenges in crop forecasting amid volatile weather and economic conditions. For 2025, the bloom began in early February and peaked mid-month. Storms brought rain, wind, and hail, which limited bee pollination and blossom development. However, improved conditions in early March, with warmer temperatures, accelerated crop progress. A mild spring with timely rainfall supported nut development and reduced heat stress. Reports also indicate lower-than-normal pest and disease pressure, and harvest is expected to begin on schedule.
The forecasted yield stands at 2,160 pounds per acre, up from 1,980 pounds in 2024. The average nut set per tree is projected at 4,364, a 7% increase from last year. For the key Nonpareil variety, the average nut set is 4,526—up 9%. However, kernel weights have slightly decreased. The overall average kernel weight is 1.60 grams, down 0.6%, while Nonpareil's kernel weight also averages 1.60 grams, reflecting a 2% decline from 2024.
The 2025 Objective Report is based on a rigorous methodology involving direct nut counts. Conducted between May 24 and June 28, the survey included 1,892 trees across 946 orchards. USDA-NASS's suite of almond reports—including the annual Objective Report, Subjective Forecast, and Nursery Survey—provides the California almond industry with essential data to guide business decisions.
© California AlmondsFor more information:
California Almonds
Tel: +1 209 549 8262
Email: [email protected]
www.almonds.com
