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Rabobank report:

Australian almond sector set for “year of growth”

The Australian almond industry is on track to enjoy a “much better year in 2024”, Rabobank says in a newly-released report, with producers expecting to see margin improvement thanks to lower input prices, affordable water prices and high water availability, better climatic conditions and improving export prices.

In its global Five-year almond market outlook: Significant rebound underway, the agricultural banking specialist said this is welcome news to Australian growers, whose margins were squeezed in the past year due to reduced volumes, lower yields and increased production costs.

“The 2024 Australian almond harvest is now underway and there are prospects of a strong recovery on the horizon, after a challenging production year in 2023,” says report co-author, Rabobank associate analyst Pia Piggott.

The latest industry forecasts for the season are expecting Australia’s 2024 almond crop to reach 164,000 metric tons kernel weight equivalent (KWE), 59 per cent higher than the official intake for last year’s harvest, the report said.

Ms Piggot said the improved harvest prospect will help fuel Australia’s almond exports, which on average account for 80 per cent of Australian production. She added that for Australian almond producers, 2023 had been another year of export growth. “Shipments in the marketing year through November 2023 were up eight per cent in volume, exceeding the crop size for 2023 and resulting in a significant reduction in carry-out volume,” she said.

There were mixed results across export markets during the year, Ms Piggott said. “The reduction of tariffs on Australian almonds to India has prompted significant growth in trade to the region, with volumes up 140 per cent year-on-year in 2023 (March to November 2023).

“Meanwhile, for Australia’s largest export destination, China – the sluggish economy has softened consumer demand and exports to the region are down 32 per cent year-on year (March to November 2023). Fortunately, growth in other markets and in domestic sales has been positive, as Australia continues to diversify its export destinations,” she said.

For more information:
Denise Shaw
Rabobank Australia & New Zealand
Phone: 02 8115 2744 or 0439 603 525

Will Banks
Rabobank Australia
Phone: 0418 216 103

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