The Brazilian orange crop for Marketing Year (MY) 2020/21 is forecast at 390.8 million 40.8-kg boxes (MBx) or 15.94 million metric tons (mmt), an increase of seven percent relative to the current season. Although citrus trees are in the on-year of the production cycle, adverse weather notably affected the production potential for the upcoming season. Total Brazilian FCOJ 65 Brix equivalent exports for MY 2020/21 are forecast relatively stable at 1.050 million metric tons (mt), an increase of 18,000 mt vis-àvis MY 2019/20.
According to Fundecitrus, the 294.2 MBx forecast is over ten percent below the average crop size for the last ten years; therefore, it is considered a small crop. Adverse weather should affect the projected output. The Sao Paulo commercial citrus belt faced opposite climate extremes at the beginning of this crop season with good rainfall volumes in the southern region (Itapetininga, Avaré and Duartina) in June and August 2020, thus triggering a first bloom. Meanwhile, an extended dry period which ended only in mid-October prevailed in the remaining citrus regions, delaying the blooming to November.
Inconsistent weather behavior with prolonged droughts and high temperatures during blooming, led to a third bloom in many groves in December 2020 and January 2021, and a fourth bloom as of February 2021.
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