The U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates that global orange production will increase by 3.6 million tonnes to 49.4 million tonnes in 2020/21 from the previous year, as favourable weather has led to increased harvests in Brazil and Mexico and offset the decline in Turkey and the United States.
The Brazilian orange crop is expected to increase by 14% to 16.9 million tonnes based on the favourable weather, flowering and fruit setting that is forecast. The consumption of oranges is expected to remain the same, while the orange harvest for the processing industry will increase by 2.0 million tonnes to 12.2 million tonnes. Mexican production is expected to increase by more than half to 4.0 million tons, after last year's crop was decimated by the drought. A greater supply will lead to greater consumption and more fruit for processing.
For China, a slight increase in the harvest to 7.5 million tonnes is expected due to favourable weather conditions. Consumption will increase as yield increases, while fewer oranges are expected to be used for processing. Imports are expected to remain stable with Egypt, South Africa, Australia, the United States and the European Union remaining the main suppliers.
The orange crop in the European Union is expected to increase by 6% to 6.6 million tonnes as a result of the favourable weather and an increase in the harvested area as new orchards are put into production in Italy.
In the United States, production is expected to drop 13% to 4.1 million tonnes, with the Florida harvest expected to drop 20% due to an above-average decline in production.
Yields in Egypt are expected to increase by 200,000 tonnes to 3.4 million tonnes due to an increase in the harvested area and favourable weather conditions during the flowering period and fruit set. Consumption, oranges for processing and exports will all increase as a result of increased stocks. The main export markets are expected to remain the EU, Russia, Saudi Arabia and China.
South African production is expected to increase by 3% to 1.7 million tonnes due to expected normal weather conditions, an increase in harvested area due to new plantings of high yielding varieties with late ripening, and better water management. Exports are expected to increase slightly to 1.3 million tonnes and represent more than a quarter of world trade. The EU is expected to remain South Africa's largest sales market, accounting for more than a third of exports.
The Turkish orange harvest is down by 20% to 1.4 million tonnes due to the warm weather and strong winds that have damaged the bloom.
Production in Morocco is expected to increase by more than a third to 1.1 million tonnes as a result of the favourable weather and the expansion of acreage through the creation of new orchards. An increase is also expected for consumption, exports and fruit for processing.