The fruit category has been outperforming vegetables for a number of years, both in volume and dollar sales. "Since both segments were growing, we didn't think all that much of it," says Anne-Marie Roerink with 210 Analytics. However, at the start of 2025, fruit gains started to accelerate whereas vegetables started to lose ground in units, volume and dollar sales. "The alarm bells went off and when we dug into SEPC's fall research, we were able to draw some interesting conclusions." The biggest reason for the widening gap between fruits and vegetables wasn't price at store level or consumer finances, but rather the demographic tidal wave.
Impact of younger generations
Boomers have been the majority shopping group for 30 years and still are today, representing about 32 percent of the total produce department dollars. Gen X and Millennials are a point or two behind while Gen Z represents about three percent of spending. "Boomers purchase a wide variety of fruits and vegetables, are predictable in their shopping patterns and primarily focus on fresh," commented Roerink. However, over the past few years, their spending in produce as well as total store spending is slowing. Gen Z and Millennial spending on the other hand is gearing up. "These younger generations often represent 60 - 70 percent of all growth, meaning their purchasing patterns have an overriding influence on the department's sales growth trends."
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Vegetable displays at Brothers store.
Involvement of Gen Z and Millennials with vegetables
Gen Z and Millennials over-index for fruit plus their year-over-year fruit growth is twice that of vegetables. In other words, the fruit and vegetable performance gap is growing and getting Gen Z and Millennials more involved with vegetables is crucially important. In turn the "who" then drives changes in channels shopped and items purchased. Gen Z and Millennials tend to have a very different meal lineup compared to Boomers, impacting the types and the amount of fresh produce purchased. "Think about Taco Night versus a more traditional meat, veg and side type of dinner." While Tacos certainly have a variety of veggies, the volume for each is likely going to be a lot less than if this same household were to be making a traditional meat/veg/side type of meal. "The produce category is not the only segment dealing with this," shared Roerink. "Think about seafood (e.g. salmon or cod) as a traditional center of plate protein choice versus sushi that uses a very minimal amount of seafood."
Top performing fruits in detail
In 2025, the three best performing fruits in dollar growth were berries, apples, and oranges. What is driving their performance? "Demographics play a huge role here as well," mentioned Roerink. Gen Z and Millennials are responsible for a significant share of the growth in those three categories, especially berries. This is driven by kids in households, smoothie applications, etc. "However, we should also credit the fruit category for their great innovations focused on quality, variety, better packaging, etc. Great-tasting berries are now available year-round, and consumers have responded favorably to that.
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Apples at Coop Food store.
Strawberry powerhouse
To stay within the berry category, strawberries are the powerhouse in terms of dollars, units, and volume. They generated more than $5 billion in sales in 2025 and delivered growth all around. Their volume (pound) growth was up 3.7 percent year-over-year. However, blueberries, because of their much higher price per pound, are a close second in dollar sales, at $4.1 billion annually. Their unit and pound sales are much lower though. Nevertheless, they are a strong up-and-comer, with 7.8 percent year-over-year volume growth. Closing out the all-around win for berries shows high volume growth for raspberries, blackberries, mixed berries, and cranberries.
Roerink is confident berries will continue to see sustained growth in years to come. "Typically, I look at three different factors:
- The duration of growth. Is this just a few months or maybe a year or has this been an ongoing trend?
- Who is driving the growth?
- Is it just one variety, retailer or brand or is this broad-based growth?
The answer to all three points to a favorable outlook for berries. The category has been on top of the growth chart month after month, often driven by demand combined with low inflationary growth. Gen Z and Millennials are generations who fuel the growth and will drive sales for many more decades. To answer the third question, all berries are contributing to the growth.
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Fruit displays at Brothers and Hannaford stores.
Opportunities for vegetables
Are there any opportunities in vegetables that could drive volume and dollar sales? "Absolutely," is Roerink's answer. The vegetable category has a few massive powerhouses in potatoes, tomatoes, lettuce and onions. "For categories that big, it is hard to deliver growth year after year, especially with fluctuating prices," she said. Let's take a closer look at potatoes. After inflation in 2024/2025 due to a smaller crop, deflation drove the second half of 2025 and the start of 2026. This resulted in potatoes showing robust pound gains, but dollars lagged due to deflation. "However, potatoes didn't lose any households and prices fell back in line with historic averages quickly. This prompted a return of trips and a shift to larger pack sizes." There's also a fun story to share about yams/sweet potatoes. The most Googled recipe of 2025 was the yam, ground beef, cottage cheese and hot honey bowl. Every single one of those ingredients grew by double digits. It shows the power of social media and viral recipes.
In other words, there are plenty of opportunities for the vegetable category, keeping in mind that Gen Z and Millennials will drive the growth opportunities in the years to come.
For more information:
Anne-Marie Roerink
210 Analytics LLC
Tel.: +1 (210) 651-2719
[email protected]
www.210analytics.com
