The start of the 2025/26 season has brought contrasting signals to Poland's apple juice concentrate (AJC) market. Despite a higher apple harvest, production of concentrate declined, while sales volumes showed a marked rebound. According to Statistics Poland, apple output in 2025 was estimated 10% higher year-on-year.
However, in companies employing 50 or more people, production of concentrated apple juice in September and October totalled 116,000 tonnes, down 19% compared with the same period a year earlier. Typically, these two months account for around two-thirds of seasonal output.
At the same time, sales production rose by 40% year-on-year, largely driven by strong October figures, which may indicate improved demand, including from export markets.
Exports are still below last year's, but U.S. demand strengthens
In the first three quarters of 2025, Polish AJC exports were 17% lower year-on-year in volume terms. The scale of decline eased in the third quarter to just over 5%. A notable development was the more than twofold increase in shipments to the United States during the January–September period, mainly concentrated in the first half of the year, with stabilisation in Q3.
The shift is linked to changes in global trade flows. Data from S&P Global show that U.S. imports of apple concentrate from China fell by 30% year-on-year. Chinese exports overall were also lower despite increased shipments to Turkey and Canada.
Lower supply from China may lend support to global prices, which are currently below last year's levels. Continued tariff uncertainty remains a risk factor, but constrained Asian availability could create opportunities for Polish exporters in the U.S. market in the coming months.
Beyond the U.S., exports to the United Kingdom have shown recovery after a slowdown in the first half of 2025. Shipments to Hungary have also remained stable, supported by a limited domestic apple supply and reduced local production there.
Source: www.sadyogrody.pl
