The avocados in India are readily available via imports, but there are no extremes in the market right now, says Abdul Kadir Memon, Director at Abacate International, Head of Business Development and Procurement: "Availability for avocados is currently at a moderate and healthy level. The Tanzanian season began slightly earlier than usual this year, with arrivals starting in January instead of the typical February window. As a result, supply was stable through January, and the market remained balanced. At the moment, supply cannot be described as either scarce or excessive; it is moderate. However, as the season gains full momentum, more volumes are entering the market, and this is beginning to influence pricing dynamics."
Tanzania is still the major player when it comes to the supply of avocados to India, says Shahid Patka, Director at Abacate International, Head of Sales and Operations. "Tanzania remains the dominant origin for the Indian market, primarily due to its zero-duty advantage and favorable transit time. This continues to make it the most commercially viable origin. However, during temporary disruptions in Tanzania, including election-related slowdowns, protests, and flood-related logistical challenges in late 2025, other origins gained short-term presence."
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According to Memon, Australia and Kenya supplied additional volumes to compensate for those shortfalls. "Australian fruit, which typically caters to premium segments, expanded slightly beyond its usual niche this season due to the temporary Tanzanian gap. That said, Tanzania continues to be the backbone of India's avocado imports. Other origins compete when supply gaps arise, but structurally, Tanzania remains the preferred and most significant source."
Patka states that prices were stable in January, when availability was controlled and aligned with demand: "However, in February, prices began softening, a pattern that has been observed in previous years as well. This phase typically attracts additional importers, including short-term or opportunistic traders who enter when prices appear favorable. As more volumes are loaded and shipped, the market tends to face downward pressure upon arrival.
Looking ahead, with the Tanzanian season now in full swing and substantial volumes reportedly loaded for India, prices are expected to face further pressure in the coming weeks, Memon explains. "The key factor will be how closely imports align with actual weekly consumption capacity. Oversupply remains the primary structural challenge in the Indian avocado market. While demand has grown rapidly over the past few years, weekly consumption remains finite. In periods where consumption averages around 14–15 containers per week, imports occasionally reach 25–30 containers. Even a small imbalance in such a market can quickly destabilize pricing."
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Although domestic cultivation of avocados in India is increasing, it has not slowed down the imports one bit. On the contrary, Patka says that avocado imports are doubling every year: "Domestic cultivation is increasing, but at this stage, it does not significantly impact import volumes. Import growth over the past four years has been substantial: From 1,871 tons in 2022, 3,900 tons in 2023, 9,212 tons in 2024, and finally 19,120 tons in 2025. This represents more than 100% year-on-year growth in the last two consecutive years. Against this scale of expansion, domestic production remains relatively small in commercial terms. While local cultivation is expanding and may play a larger role in the future, it is currently not affecting import demand in any meaningful way."
"However, the growth pattern seen over the last two years, where volumes more than doubled annually, may not be sustainable indefinitely. For 2026, a more organic growth trajectory is expected. Instead of another doubling, the market may grow in the range of 15–20%, or remain close to current levels, as consumption stabilizes after a period of rapid expansion. The long-term outlook remains positive, but market stability will depend on disciplined importing aligned with realistic weekly consumption capacity. Growth is evident, but sustainable expansion requires better synchronization between supply and absorption," Memon concludes.
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