Mexico expects a record avocado crop for the crop year that runs from July 2025 through June 2026. "We anticipate to bring in 2.5 billion pounds and it's the first time we'll be crossing that line," says Alvaro Luque, CEO of Avocados From Mexico (AFM), a nonprofit marketing organization that is involved in about 84 percent of all avocados exported from Mexico to the U.S.
This is looking to be a very special crop year as everything falls into place. In the past two years, a lot of avocado units were moved, but the fruit was smaller in size. This season is expected to be a monster season in terms of units and sizing is favorable as well. "We have lots of 48s and 40s, very promotable sizes for U.S. retailers," commented Luque. "The combination of quantity and sizing will get us to 2.5 billion pounds." If the industry reaches that number, it will mean double digit growth over last year. In addition, year-to-date shipments show double-digit growth over 2023, the year that currently holds the volume record.
© Avocados From Mexico
Left: Alvaro Luque.
Jalisco complements Michoacán
Mexico is the only sourcing country that can deliver so much avocado volume to the U.S. market. Michoacán and Jalisco are the only two states approved to ship avocados to the U.S. "Michoacán has the ability to consistently deliver a high volume from January through December and is responsible for about 85 percent of all exports." Jalisco's production on the other hand is smaller and more concentrated but because the state has only been allowed to ship to the U.S. since 2022, the industry is still expanding. "As opposed to Michoacán, Jalisco has a lot of land available to expand production, which is very exciting." The two states nicely complement each other as Michoacán's lowest volumes are produced in summer, during Jalisco's peak season. All in all, about 55 percent of Mexico's total avocado volume is exported to the U.S.
Large volume offers confidence
Is demand from U.S. consumers high enough to take on that additional volume this season? "Yes, the market is ripe for growth," answered Luque. Right now, avocados are experiencing over 70 percent household penetration, but the number of avocado units per store trip is still relatively low. This offers an opportunity for growth. At the same time, this large volume offers retailers confidence that we can supply them during all the major avocado consumption holidays that are taking place throughout the year. Confidence in quality, in promotable supply, and in size availability.
Super Bowl shipments
The Super Bowl is the largest consumption event and usually, 250 million pounds of avocados are shipped in the four weeks leading up to Super Bowl, to be held February 8 this year. "Last year, record numbers were imported and consumed for Super Bowl, but we expect that record to be broken this year and may get to 280 million pounds," said Luque. Last week was the first week that showed heavier shipments for Super Bowl with 69 million pounds of avocados projected to enter the U.S. "I don't have the final numbers yet, but I think we came closer to 72 million pounds," he said. Historically, during weeks 3 and 4, shipments contain over 70 million pounds, but this year, there is a high chance the 70-million-pound mark will be exceeded in weeks 2, 3 and 4.
© Avocados From Mexico
Sports games drive consumption
Promotional activity doesn't stop after Super Bowl. In February and March, the focus will be on health and wellness before the spotlight turns to Cinco de Mayo and 4th of July. Consumption of avocados, and guacamole in particular, is very much driven by sports events. People gather and watch sports games together and AFM's promotional activity is highly aligned with that. AFM has been supportive of college football but will also do activations around the World Cup this summer. "The World Cup always offers a good opportunity to promote avocado consumption, but this year is extra special since it will be held in the U.S., Canada, and Mexico."
While Super Bowl, Cinco de Mayo, and 4th of July are the three major avocado consumption events in the U.S., it is important to promote consumption throughout the year. "Together, these three events are responsible for 25 percent of annual consumption, which means 75 percent of consumption is still generated outside these three events."
For more information:
Alvaro Luque
Avocados From Mexico
Tel: (+1) 469-930-5700
www.avocadosfrommexico.com
