Orange juice prices have more than doubled in the UK over the past five years, rising from £0.76 (US$0.93) per litre in 2020 to £1.79 (US$2.18) in 2025, a 134% increase. In the past year alone, prices have been up 29%, with similar increases seen across restaurants and cafes. The rise reflects global supply constraints caused by crop disease, extreme weather, and trade barriers.
At Gerald McDonald and Co in Basildon, frozen orange concentrate from Brazil arrives in steel drums for blending and packaging. Managing director Maxim McDonald said that global prices have risen from about US$1 to US$5.30 per pound over the past decade, reaching record highs after five years of poor crops. "Around September of last year, the price shot up to crazy levels. At the worst time, I was being offered $7 a kilo. For such a major commodity to go from $2 to $7 is insane," he said.
Brazil, which supplies most of the world's orange concentrate, reported its smallest crop since 1988 after prolonged drought and the spread of citrus greening disease. In some areas, two-thirds of trees are affected. Morocco, Egypt, and South Africa also produce oranges, but their output remains limited. Spain exports mainly fresh fruit, while recent floods in Valencia reduced volumes.
In the U.S., Florida's orange production has dropped to its lowest level since the Great Depression due to hurricanes and citrus greening. "Not many are buying Florida oranges anymore unless it is a requirement to label the juice 'Florida Orange'. It's very difficult to get oranges out of Florida, and it's too expensive," McDonald said.
Citrus greening also reduces sugar levels, leading to less sweet fruit. Some manufacturers are using mandarins or blending orange juice with apple, pear, mango, or clementine to reduce costs and maintain flavour. Tropicana recently launched lower-cost blended products in the U.S., reflecting the same trend seen in UK supermarkets.
Trade policy has added pressure. A 10% tariff on Brazilian orange juice to the U.S. and counter-tariffs with Canada have constrained trade. UK tariff adjustments in 2024 had a limited effect, as increases in global concentrate prices outweighed any savings. New packaging rules under Extended Producer Responsibility have also raised costs.
Global orange juice consumption has fallen 30% over two decades, largely in Western markets, while demand grows in China, South Africa, and India. Brazil's recent harvest recovery may stabilise prices, but industry experts warn that the dominance of large producers and ongoing disease risks will continue to shape market volatility.
Source: BBC
