Mangoes are still shipping from Mexico. "The Northern Mexican deal is winding down and getting into the Los Mochis region and transitioning from Kents into Keitt mangoes," says Gary Clevenger of Freska Produce.
© Freska
This is happening a few weeks earlier than normal this year. "The Keitts started a couple of weeks earlier than normal, so we're thinking the season will probably come to an end around the first week of September," says Clevenger. "Last year it extended into late September."
Meanwhile, the first arrivals from Brazil are expected to begin in late August and early September, which is consistent with historical timing. However, the picture for Brazilian mangoes this year is expected to look different following U.S. President Donald Trump's plan to impose a 50 percent tariff on Brazilian goods coming into the U.S. "Unless that changes, Brazil is probably going to look for someplace else, like Europe, to send most of their fruit. They have around 12 million boxes for the season, and we'll be lucky to see 3 to 4 million of those here," says Clevenger. "The fruit coming here is probably going to be pretty expensive this year."
Other nations diverting too?
This leaves mangoes from other tariffed nations–Ecuador at 15 percent and Peru at 10 percent on goods imported into the U.S.--feeling potentially more manageable than Brazil's 50 percent. "I would imagine that even Peru and Ecuador will probably try to divert some of that fruit to Europe too if things don't change on tariffs," says Clevenger.
As for demand, it's good right now, given that summertime always sees steady demand for mangoes. This is also the time of year when retailers like to see big fruit sizes, 5s, 6s, and 7s, and even into 3s and 4s when Keitt fruit starts shipping.
© Freska
Where is this leaving pricing? "It was on its way down for a while due to the high volume coming out of Mexico. Now, pricing is going up," says Clevenger. "Prices on Kents are going up because they're going to be running out of supply. Keitts are going to continue to go up from now until the first part of September, just due to supply. Then we'll see a big price difference between the Mexican fruit and the Brazilian fruit when it starts arriving. It would need to be in the $11-$14 range for everybody to be able to make money."
High pricing on mangoes is then expected to continue until around Thanksgiving.
For more information:
Gary Clevenger
Freska Produce
Tel: +1 (805) 650-1040
[email protected]
www.freskaproduce.com
