According to a RaboResearch report, the global avocado market's valuation now exceeds USD 20 billion. Enhanced production and diverse exporting countries drive export volumes upward, yet seasonal oversupply concerns some markets. Addressing these concerns may necessitate ongoing demand generation and strategic marketing.
"The total avocado market value, in terms of consumer prices, is estimated at around USD 20.5 billion, with three main regions representing 88% of the market value: Latin America, North America, and Europe," says David Magaña, Senior horticulture analyst for RaboResearch. Latin America's consumption leads globally, but despite this, the remaining 12% of global market value offers expansion potential. North America's market experienced a notable rise recently, fueled by marketing initiatives.
Global avocado exports trend upwards, with forecasts predicting over 3 million metric tons by 2026/27. "This massive growth is the result of increasing exports from the current top three avocado exporters, Mexico, Peru, and Colombia, accounting for about two-thirds of global exports," Magaña explains. The diversification of cultivation regions and new exporting countries, drawn by previous high-profit margins, further contributes to export increases.
The US maintains a strong import appetite, remaining the top global importer. Low shipments from Mexico influenced record-high pricing due to climate impacts on development. A return to normal volumes from Mexico is anticipated for the 2025/26 season, alongside California's largest harvest since 2020. Prospective trade policy alterations might impact the US's diversification endeavors in Latin America.
In South America, export potential could exceed 1 million metric tons by 2025/26, led primarily by Peru, with Colombia and Chile following. These nations are expanding production and exports, though Chile alone holds a notable domestic footing. RaboResearch identifies opportunities for boosting demand in other South American regions.
European demand remains robust but must grapple with absorbing large Peruvian shipments in summer 2025, affecting wholesale prices. Additional marketing measures may be needed as Peru and African nations increase export volumes to Europe.
Australian production is poised for recovery following a setback in 2024/25, with an anticipated bounce-back in 2025/26. In the long term, RaboResearch anticipates that planted area expansion will stabilize. An upturn in New Zealand's avocado output is also expected post-2024, marking further growth into 2025.
Source: Morning AgClips
