South Africa's fruit, vegetable, and nut industries are cautiously optimistic as favourable weather forecasts and stable crop conditions coincide with ongoing trade negotiations that could shape export performance in the months ahead.
Current projections suggest that the 2025–26 summer season may bring average to above-average rainfall across the country, with the possibility of La Niña conditions further improving the outlook. While farmers will only begin serious preparations in October, the early signs point to a strong production environment, which bodes well for horticultural planning and investment. These conditions follow a productive 2024–25 season, where the harvest of summer crops, including key horticultural products, has progressed steadily.
In the citrus sector, the harvest is underway, with attention focused on the critical U.S. market. A 90-day suspension of U.S. reciprocal tariffs, granted in early April, is set to expire on July 8. This has created uncertainty for exporters, as it is unclear whether the current 10% duty rate will remain in place or revert to 31%, the level imposed under the Liberation Day tariffs. The South African government, along with agricultural industry bodies, continues to lobby for extended access and a long-term trade agreement to secure the position of citrus and other fresh produce in U.S. markets.
Meanwhile, a wider discussion around export diversification is gaining traction. While there is recognition of the need to reduce reliance on a few key markets, such as the U.S. and the EU, establishing new trade relationships takes time. China and India, often cited as alternatives, still pose significant challenges for South African exports due to high tariffs and phytosanitary barriers, despite recent indications from Chinese authorities of a willingness to lower duties on some African goods.
Logistics have shown modest improvement compared to recent years. Ongoing collaboration between Transnet, business stakeholders, and the government has led to better coordination and operations at major ports. However, full efficiency is still a work in progress, and further investment is needed to support the export potential of perishable goods.
Despite these challenges, the outlook for fruits, vegetables, and nuts remains positive. Continued favourable weather, a solid 2024–25 harvest, and ongoing diplomatic engagement on trade offer a degree of resilience. However, the sector's future growth will depend heavily on the outcomes of key trade negotiations and the country's ability to address persistent structural and biosecurity issues.
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