The success of the California walnut industry largely depends on exports. On average, about two-thirds of the crop is exported to many different countries, mainly in Europe, Asia, and the Middle East. The import tariffs that were implemented earlier this year have resulted in uncertainty in the global market. Currently, trade negotiations are happening between the U.S. and many different countries and depending on these outcomes, there could be consequences for walnut exports. "Fortunately, we haven't been impacted by a lot of retaliatory tariffs just yet and hopefully, the negotiations will be successful. We are hearing rumors that India and the EU, two key export destinations, are close to a deal, but we won't be relieved until we see the official announcement," says Bill Carriere with Carriere Farms.
Due to the uncertainty in the market, sales have been slow. January, February, and March are usually slower months in terms of sales. "However, the slow period lasted longer this year, and I attribute that to the uncertainty around tariffs. The market has been soft but finally started to pick up in the past few weeks."
Less competition from Chile
California only has about five percent of the 2024 crop left to sell and is already looking ahead at the 2025 season. This time of year, Chile is usually a competitor as the country's walnut harvest takes place in May. However, imports from Chile have been slower this year. "First of all, Chile came out with strong pricing, resulting in buyers waiting to commit," said Carriere. As a result, Chile is about 10 percent behind in shipments compared to the same time last year. In addition, crop volume is a bit lower compared to normal with 160,000 – 165,000 tonnes, so there is less volume to ship. Furthermore, Chile has been focused on selling to Europe more this season because the U.S. had a short crop last year and didn't have its normal volumes to ship to Europe. Turkey and India also bought significant volumes from Chile.
Domestic 2025 crop estimate
Fast forward to the outlook of the domestic crop, the Tulare and Howard varieties seem to have bounced back from last year's low volume and look heavy. The Chandler variety on the other hand, which makes up more than 60 percent of total production, doesn't look that heavy. "It's not as low as last year, but it's not a windbreaker crop either," shared Carriere. The total crop estimate is 685,000 tons, which is a little lower than the industry would like, but 13 percent up from last year. "We expect to go out of this season with very little carry-over product and need about 80,000 – 100,000 tons for September and October, before the new crop ships. From that perspective, it would have been ideal to have a slightly larger crop. At the same time, we are optimistic that prices will hold with a crop this size. A normal and stable price is all we ask for."
More recently, the California Walnut Board has been actively and aggressively promoting California walnuts in the domestic market as well as abroad. "With the majority of our walnuts being destined for the export market, I am quite happy with the strategic direction," Carriere finished.
For more information:
Bill Carriere
Carriere Family Farms
Tel: (+1) 530-934-8200
[email protected]
www.carrierefarms.com