North America Edition
The 2022-2023 Florida all orange forecast released by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board is 28.0 million boxes, down 32 percent from last season’s final production. The total includes 11.0 million boxes of non-Valencia oranges (early, mid-season, and Navel varieties) and 17.0 million boxes of Valencia oranges. The Navel orange forecast, at 300,000 boxes, accounts for 3 percent of the non-Valencia total. The survey was taken before hurricane Ian
The estimated number of bearing trees for all oranges is 44.0 million. Trees planted in 2019 and earlier are considered bearing for this season. Field work for the latest Commercial Citrus Inventory was completed in June 2022. Attrition rates were applied to the results to determine the number of bearing trees used to weigh and expand objective count data in the forecast model.
A 9-year regression was used for comparison purposes. All references to “average”, “minimum”, and “maximum” refer to the previous 10 seasons, excluding the 2017-2018 season, which was affected by Hurricane Irma. Average fruit per tree includes both regular bloom and the first late bloom.
Non-Valencia oranges 11.0 mln boxes
The non-Valencia forecast of 11.0 million boxes is 40 percent less than last season’s production. The estimated number of bearing trees (without Navels) is 15.8 million, down 8 percent from the previous season. The estimated fruit per tree for early and mid-season (non-Valencia) oranges is 474, a decrease of 97 pieces from last season, and the lowest in a series dating back to the 1964-1965 season. Projected fruit size is below average, requiring an estimated 335 pieces of fruit to fill a 90-pound box. At 38 percent, projected droppage is above average.
The Navel forecast of 300,000 boxes is 39 percent less than last season’s production. The estimated number of bearing trees is 653,000, down 14 percent from the previous season. The estimated fruit per tree is 106, a decrease of 49 pieces from last season. Projected fruit size is above average, requiring an estimated 136 pieces of fruit to fill a 90-pound box. Projected droppage is above average at 30 percent.
Valencia oranges 17.0 mln boxes
The Valencia forecast of 17.0 million boxes is 25 percent lower than last season’s production. The estimated number of bearing trees is 27.5 million, down 4 percent from the previous season. The estimated fruit per tree is 323, a decrease of 72 pieces from last season, and the lowest in a series dating back to the 1964-1965 season. Projected fruit size is below average, requiring an estimated 275 pieces of fruit to fill a 90 pound box. Projected droppage is above average at 33 percent.
Statement Nikki Fried
Florida Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried released a statement saying: "As we move forward in the wake of this disaster, rest assured that I remain steadfast in my support of our Florida citrus growers. And my department remains committed to innovation in the face of the ongoing challenges of weather events like Ian, citrus greening and unfair trade practices. It is heartbreaking to see such an iconic Florida industry hurting right now."
Fried said that the current citrus forecast, surveyed prior to Hurricane Ian, will be ‘an invaluable baseline for growers, processors, packers and government in predicting additional crop loss’. A December forecast will reflect updated inspections of groves.
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Source: nass.usda.gov
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