Various local governments in Japan have been making their own calculations to determine how the the Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement could affect their agriculture, forestry and fisheries sectors. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s Cabinet is expected to approve a set of bills related to the TPP in parliament soon, and the local projections will add to the debate on the controversial 12 nation deal.
In December, the central government projected adopting the TPP would mean a national decline of ¥130 billion to ¥210 billion on 33 items in these sectors. Since then, local governments have also made calculations as to how much financial assistance might be needed for local farmers and those in the pulp industry who could lose out to cheaper foreign imports.
Such assistance includes efforts to promote prefectural agricultural products overseas as high-value gourmet items.
All prefectures expect declines, but the amount depends on the prefecture and the sector.
In Yamanashi Prefecture, Gov. Hitoshi Goto announced last month industrial production in his prefecture would decline by ¥250 million to ¥500 million after the TPP comes into force, mostly in beef and pork. Although he believes that there will only be a limited impact on local grape and peach farming because consumers will distinguish between local and imported grapes under the accord.
A separate prefectural study, however, warned that over the mid- to long-term, there is a danger that cheaper imports will drive prices of Yamanashi fruit down, requiring measures to deal with this. Yamanashi Prefecture produces about 90 percent of domestically consumed grapes.
Kagawa mikan mandarin orange production could decline by up to ¥50 million. Kagawa Prefecture has allotted about ¥1.5 billion in the fiscal 2016 budget to promote local fruit and Kagawa rice to TPP member countries.
Toyama Prefecture predicts a small impact due to TPP. It concluded that there would be a total decline in local agriculture and seafood products of ¥180 million to ¥320 million. Total prefectural agricultural production in 2013 amounted to nearly ¥60 billion. Toyama also aims to sell more apples abroad under the TPP.
In Fukuoka, prefectural calculations show an up to ¥2 billion decline in agriculture, forestry and seafood production over several decades, though this is less than 2 percent of its current ¥112 billion in annual production.
(1 Japanese Yen=0.0089 USD)
Source: japantimes.co.jp
