NW Cherry Growers release round 2 of crop estimate
The current estimate also indicates that we can expect more fruit in June than ever before (up to 7.6 million boxes), which would allow for more volume in time for the U.S. Independence Day celebrations on the 4th of July. Harvest is expected to gear up over the next few days, and demand is expected to remain significant through June as most U.S. consumers have not had the chance to enjoy sweet cherries this year. Lastly, this estimate is right in line with the predicted volume that came out of last week’s 5-State NW Cherry Grower meeting.
The Growing Degree Day chart continues to show a very nice spread between production districts. For example, this year the northern district Brewster Flat and the Yakima Valley (Harrah) are over 250 degree days apart, wider than the 5-year average and at greater accumulations. A greater spread equates to more time to progress through harvest, while a bigger-than-average accumulated number indicates an earlier start to harvest. If the spread continues, the Northwest industry should get between 80 and 90 days to sell the entire crop. We’ve also included current district Growing Degree Day progression charts to illustrate where the timing of this crop is relative to other production years. As stated, the warmer weather this spring indicates that this year’s harvest will begin very soon; leading everyone to ample volume likely available for the U.S. 4th of July holiday.
As always, it is important to note that this estimate has potential for variance from the eventual actual size of the crop. The Northwest (NW) Cherries Field Estimate team has compiled a second round of a four round estimate process for the 2014. Over a series of 4 rounds of projections during the crop’s early development, the 17-person estimation team looks at crop potential across all growing districts with each member submitting data specific to their active growing districts. This data is built into an estimation model that uses fieldmen assessments of current crop load, historical data, degree days, crop expansion and average processing tonnage data to formulate an estimate.
To read the full Round #2 Crop Estimate, please click here to download.
For more information:
The Northwest Cherry Growers
Tel: +1 (509) 453-4837
nwcherries.com
(509) 453-4837 t
