The Kenyan avocado season began amid the turmoil of the war in the Middle East, which has reignited the crisis in the Red Sea and caused real concern among exporters. The season is continuing, however, and is even showing positive signs despite the stressful conditions. Paul Kyalo, managing director of Konza Tropicals, reports on the situation.
© Konza Tropicals
Quick adaptation to new logistical conditions
According to Kyalo, "The logistics landscape is undoubtedly complex, but it is also a testament to the resilience of our exporters. We are navigating a 'new normal' where adaptability is our greatest asset."
The exporter recounts how the war impacted the starting Kenyan export campaign: "The recent closure of the Strait of Hormuz has certainly hampered traditional access to the Upper Gulf. However, we haven't sat still. We are aggressively utilizing landbridge solutions through Jeddah and King Abdullah Port. By offloading at these Red Sea hubs and trucking inland to destinations like Riyadh, Dubai, and Kuwait, we are ensuring that our premium produce reaches Middle Eastern consumers without the uncertainty of the Strait.
The official opening of the Kenya avocado season on April 2nd came at a pivotal moment. While February saw significant volatility due to the escalation of regional conflicts, forcing some vessels to seek safe harbor or reroute around the Cape, we are now seeing a stabilization in schedules," Kyalo continues.
© Konza Tropicals
Sailing has resumed in the Red Sea, although partially, but just enough to keep business according to the exporter: "We are working closely with shipping lines that have resumed selected Suez transits under naval protection. For the more risk-averse routes, the "around Africa" transit is now a well-oiled machine; while it adds 10–14 days, the predictability allows us to manage the cold chain effectively to ensure arrival quality.
It is important to note that our trade with Asia and China remains robust and largely unaffected by the Red Sea bottlenecks. In fact, with China's new zero-tariff policy on African imports starting this May, we are seeing a strategic pivot that balances out the challenges in the West," the exporter continues.
The exporter addresses a call to the industry players: "To our buyers and growers: Confidence is key. While it is true that current export volumes are lower than the 2022 pre-embargo highs, as some growers wait for the 'perfect' window, this has actually resulted in a higher concentration of quality. We are not just shipping fruit; we are shipping a commitment to reliability. We are choosing the right partners and the right routes to ensure that when Kenyan avocados hit the shelves in Europe and the Middle East, they do so with the same excellence our brand is known for."
© Konza Tropicals
Strong demand and a shifting market
Demand for Kenyan avocados remains fundamentally strong, according to Kyalo, despite a clear divergence in how different markets are behaving at the start of this 2026 season.
He explains, "The Middle East, Turkey, and China are our most reliable drivers right now. In China, specifically, the appetite for Kenyan Hass continues to grow, bolstered by improved trade protocols and a consumer base that increasingly values the high oil content of our fruit. Prices at the onset of the season (which officially opened on April 2nd) have been stable, reflecting a healthy pull from these regions.
The European market is, however, currently slower according to the exporter. "This is a calculated slowdown rather than a lack of interest. We are seeing limited volumes heading to the EU for two main reasons: Transit Predictability: While we have adapted to the longer routes around the Cape, the 10–14 day extension makes exporters more selective. Seasonal Timing: There is a strategic shift to hold back larger volumes for the June to November window. Historically, this peak and late-summer period offer more market stability and better price points. By focusing on the latter half of the year, we ensure that we aren't just shipping fruit, but shipping into a market that is ready to pay for quality," he adds.
© Konza Tropicals
"The next few weeks will be the real test. Market behavior will be dictated by the weekly arrival volumes and the ongoing reliability of rerouted logistics. Because we cannot "predict" the global supply chain, our focus has shifted to Strategic Collaborations. We are working more closely than ever with our importers to synchronize harvesting with vessel schedules. This ensures that even with longer sea transits, the consumer still receives a sustainable, high-quality product. For us, 2026 is the year of reliability over volume," he continues.
Better prices fueled by the local processing market
Ultimately, prices are the indicator of the campaign's dynamism. And prices this season are better for Kenyan growers and exporters. Kyalo reports, "We are seeing a notable uptick in grower prices compared to the 2025 season, driven by a unique convergence of supply-side factors and shifting local demand."
The exporter explains, "While Kenya's overall production capacity continues to expand, the 'ready-to-ship' volume at this exact moment is tight. The Agriculture and Food Authority (AFA) strictly enforced the April 2nd opening to ensure fruit maturity, following a period from December to March where significant volumes were cleared by those with early-shipment exceptions. This has led to a scenario where, despite being officially "open," the market is competing for a limited pool of high-quality, export-ready fruit."
A major shift this year is the "aggressive" growth of the domestic avocado oil industry. Kyalo, "We now have a significant and growing number of commercial processors who are absorbing volumes locally. This creates a healthy price floor for growers; they no longer feel pressured to export at any cost because they have a reliable, high-volume secondary market right here in Kenya.
© Izak Heijboer | FreshPlaza.com
Finally, we are benefiting from the classic seasonal "gap." As the global market transitions from Winter and Mediterranean origins to Summer origins, supply to major overseas hubs hasn't yet reached its peak. This early-season scarcity, combined with the logistical hurdles we've discussed, naturally pushes prices higher as buyers look to secure their pipelines. For the Kenyan grower, this is a positive start; it's a seller's market, provided the quality meets the high standards now required for the 2026 window," the exporter concludes.
For more information:
Paul Kyalo
Konza Tropicals Limited
Tel: +254 711 214 869
Email: [email protected]
www.konzatropicals.com
