Prior to Christmas, South Australia saw excellent growing conditions for potatoes. Unfortunately, that has led to an oversupply coming into the 2026 season for fresh, however, for seed, which is starting to be harvested, growers are looking at small tubers and reduced yields.
"At the end of January and beginning of February, we experienced 5 days of temperatures reaching 50 degrees," said Richard Haynes, National Account Manager at Elders. "This meant planting for the upcoming winter crop was put on hold, and some replanting has since occurred, so in winter, there will be no doubt some varied quality around."
According to Richard, we can expect smaller tuber size, quality variability, with more misshapen or sun‑scalded potatoes, as well as some harvest delays, as some blocks were too heat‑affected to lift on schedule.
"The extreme heat will also have an effect on processing and seed crops; volumes are down significantly, with some growers reporting their lowest output in years. Yields are reduced by extreme heat and inconsistent irrigation conditions, and we will see more defects and smaller sizes."
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Other States
While South Australia has been hit hardest, other states have not been immune. Victoria has mixed results; milder southern regions fared better, but northern areas also saw heat stress. New South Wales has reasonable yields in cooler regions, but heatwaves reduce quality in inland districts. Tasmania is currently the most stable supplier thanks to cooler conditions, and it is expected that potatoes from there will help fill national gaps. In Western Australia, there has been some heat impact, but less severe than in South Australia, and less impact as they supply their own state, and it's relatively easy to get potatoes across from South Australia in times of a short fall.
"The heat and dryness have reduced some fungal disease pressure, but created other issues such as a higher risk of powdery scab and common scab in stressed soils with a lack of water. Increased insect pressure from Aphids and storage losses are rising due to heat‑affected tubers breaking down faster."
Potatoes are planted year‑round in staggered cycles, and recent conditions have shaped each region differently. South Australia has been hot, and dry conditions have made summer planting difficult; irrigation demand is high and will potentially impact supply for winter. Victoria is patchy, while irrigated regions are fine, dryland areas are struggling.
"Demand continued to outstrip supply in the lead up to Christmas; however, mild growing conditions late 2025 have led to an oversupply in early 2026. It's expected that this will normalise in the coming months due to lower South Australia production, varied planting during January and February, and higher storage losses. There is still strong consumer demand for both fresh and processed potatoes."
Prospects for the coming months
"In the short-term, next 4–8 weeks, supply should gradually even out from a short supply to oversupply, and we will be back to normal, but it won't fully normalise until cooler weather stabilises yields. Tasmania and Western Australia will help fill gaps, but South Australia's recovery is essential.
"In the medium-term, autumn and winter, prices are likely to remain average until at least mid‑year, until the poor planting crops and their impact flows through in winter. Risk remains high if another heatwave or dry spell hits before Easter."
For more information:
Richard Haynes
Elders
[email protected]
