South Africa's macadamia industry enters the 2026 season with ongoing uncertainty around U.S. import tariffs and a stronger rand expected to compress on-farm margins.
Alex Whyte, director of Green Farms Nut Company, said the sector had expected to continue its price recovery after the COVID-19 downturn. "But then [U.S. President Donald] Trump's Liberation Day tariffs took the wind out of our sails. Sales to the U.S. were very subdued last year and, as a result, the industry has carryover stock of style 4 kernels."
The U.S. remains the main market for style 4 macadamias. According to Whyte, tariff uncertainty continues to affect this segment and overall grower returns. Over the past six weeks, U.S. import tariffs changed twice, first with a one-year extension of the African Growth and Opportunity Act, and then with an announcement that all countries would face a 15% tariff, later reduced to 10%.
"There's just no certainty as to where the tariffs will land one day to the next. This has made U.S. buyers hesitant, and the risk is that macadamias become so much of a headache that they are delisted from products," Whyte added.
In February, South Africa received confirmation under the China-Africa Economic Partnership Agreement that export duties to China on macadamias will be reduced from 12% to 0%. Whyte said this could result in China substituting Australian products with South African supplies. "This could alleviate some pressure on the market. The removal of the tariff means prices could be more competitive than last year's low prices."
Shane Hartman, CEO of Global Macadamias, said further clarity is still required. "We are still awaiting details on the rollout mechanism and how the tariff relief will practically play out during the season. It provides more favourable marketing options, but processors need to be strategic in how they market the nuts based on cultivar and style spread to maximise returns for growers."
Macadamias South Africa estimated the 2026 crop at 81 660t dry nut in shell, 6,38% lower than 2024. Hartman does not expect 2026 volumes to exceed 90 000t dry nuts in shell. Australia is expected to return to around 60 000t dry nuts in shell following storm-related reductions last year.
Whyte said global demand is increasing gradually. "It's not double-digit growth. Most of the world still doesn't know what a macadamia is, so there is a lot of room for growth, but it does not happen overnight."
While U.S. dollar price levels may mirror last year's, the stronger rand is expected to reduce on-farm income by about 15%. Price lists for the 2026 crop will be released in mid-March.
Source: Farmer's Weekly
