The 2025–2026 outlook for U.S. grapefruit and lemons points to diverging volume developments, with grapefruit production forecast to increase modestly while lemon output is expected to decline slightly. Regional differences remain pronounced, reflecting variations in weather conditions, grove health, and longer-term acreage trends, based on data from the National Agricultural Statistics Service, Agricultural Statistics Board, and the United States Department of Agriculture.
U.S. grapefruit production is forecast at 311,000 tons for the 2025–2026 season, representing a 4 per cent increase compared with last year's final utilisation. The increase is primarily driven by California and Texas.
California remains the largest producing state, with output projected at 4.30 million boxes, equivalent to 172,000 tons, up 5 per cent year on year. Production is supported by stable growing conditions and consistent yields. Texas is expected to record the strongest relative growth, with volumes rising 10 per cent to 2.20 million boxes, or 88,000 tons, indicating improved crop performance compared with the previous season.
Florida continues to weigh on the national total. Grapefruit production in the state is forecast at 1.20 million boxes, equivalent to 51,000 tons, down 8 per cent from last season. Reduced acreage and ongoing disease pressure continue to limit output and offset gains in other regions, according to the National Agricultural Statistics Service.
In contrast to grapefruit, the U.S. lemon crop is forecast to decline slightly in 2025–2026. Total lemon production is projected at 1.08 million tons, down 3 per cent year on year.
California, which accounts for the majority of the U.S. lemon supply, is expected to produce 25.0 million boxes, equivalent to 1.00 million tons, also down 3 per cent from the previous season. This points to somewhat tighter overall availability during the season.
Smaller producing regions are forecast to post moderate increases. Arizona lemon production is projected at 1.15 million boxes, or 46,000 tons, up 3 per cent compared with last year. Florida output is forecast to rise 4 per cent to 700,000 boxes, equivalent to 32,000 tons.
Despite these regional increases, the gains in Arizona and Florida are not sufficient to offset the decline in California, leaving total U.S. lemon supply slightly lower overall, according to the National Agricultural Statistics Service.
Source: Mintec/Expana
