According to Cepea on January 15, 2026, the year ahead is shaping up to be challenging for the Brazilian citrus sector. Although the 2025/26 crop shows a production volume close to 300 million boxes of 40.8 kg, part of this potential has been reduced by a high level of fruit drop. This is linked to the spread of greening and citrus canker, as well as unfavourable weather conditions during key stages of crop development.
At the same time, demand for orange juice remains weak in Europe, limiting trade at current price levels. Slower trading activity has led to growing juice stocks at processing companies, which in turn reduces the industry's need to procure additional fruit. As a result, competition between juice sellers and buyers has intensified, while processors are adopting a more cautious purchasing approach.
Any recovery in orange juice consumption is expected to be gradual. Price reductions at the consumer level are moving slowly, and demand in the Northern Hemisphere is seasonally lower during winter. According to Cepea, consumption could pick up again in summer 2026, which may support higher orange juice sales and facilitate the drawdown of existing inventories.
For the fresh orange market, the 2025/26 season in the citrus belt of São Paulo and the Triângulo Mineiro is expected to close slightly below 300 million 40.8-kg boxes. Even so, the crop has contributed to a rebuilding of inventories due to the availability of high-quality fruit. Looking ahead to the 2026/27 season, producers remain concerned about greening and citrus canker, which continue to increase production costs and limit productivity gains.
Regarding crop development for 2026/27, Cepea points out that weather conditions have varied significantly across regions. This uneven pattern is likely to result in different production scenarios within Brazil's main citrus-producing areas, adding further uncertainty to supply planning for the coming season.
Source: Cepea
