Large parts of India's Jammu and Kashmir region have recorded a winter rainfall deficit, raising concerns about soil moisture, water availability and implications for crop development in the coming months.
According to data from the India Meteorological Department in Srinagar, the region received 77.5 mm of rainfall between October 1 and December 31. This is around 39 per cent below the seasonal normal of 127.7 mm.
Rainfall shortages were more pronounced across the Kashmir Valley, where several districts reported deficits of more than 50 per cent. Srinagar recorded 53.8 mm of rainfall, nearly 51 per cent below normal. Shopian and Kulgam reported deficits of 78 per cent and 65 per cent, respectively.
Northern districts also saw reduced precipitation. Baramulla received 56.2 mm of rainfall, representing a 58 per cent shortfall, while Bandipora recorded a 29 per cent deficit. Ganderbal reported rainfall levels 48 per cent below normal. Deficits were also observed in the Chenab and Pir Panjal regions. Kishtwar recorded a 76 per cent shortfall, while Ramban and Udhampur reported deficits of 30 per cent and 36 per cent, respectively. Poonch was the only district to record above-normal rainfall, receiving 26 per cent more than its seasonal average.
Conditions were driest in the cold desert areas. Ladakh's Leh district recorded 1.9 mm of rainfall, a 72 per cent deficit, while Kargil was down by 71 per cent. Meteorologists attribute the prolonged dry spell to the absence of sustained western disturbances, which typically bring rain and snow to the region during winter.
The rainfall deficit is expected to affect agriculture, horticulture, and groundwater recharge. "There is a higher risk of drought conditions, water use conflicts (agriculture vs drinking vs ecosystems) and wildfires due to dry vegetation," said Mutaharra AW Deva, a Srinagar-based environmentalist. She added that reduced snowfall could limit meltwater availability later in the year. Snowpack normally acts as a water reservoir, and low accumulation at higher elevations may reduce spring and summer runoff.
Producers are already expressing concern. Saffron and apple farmers in Pulwama and Shopian said limited precipitation could affect crop performance. "Saffron requires adequate moisture during these months; without it, the corms fail to develop properly. Snow is equally vital for apples, as higher chilling hours directly translate into better yields," said farmer Tariq Ahmad.
IMD officials in Srinagar said weather patterns are being monitored, with no major precipitation forecast until January 15.
Source: The Hindu Businessline
