According to the International Air Transport Association, global air cargo demand measured in tonne-kilometres increased by 4.1% year-on-year in October 2025, reaching an all-time high for an October. International traffic grew by 4.8% year-on-year. This marked the eighth consecutive month of expansion, supported by electronics, pharmaceutical, and e-commerce shipments.
Regional performance varied. African carriers recorded the highest growth at 16.6%, followed by Asia-Pacific at 8.3%. European and Middle Eastern airlines reported increases of 4.7% and 5.8% respectively. In contrast, North American carriers saw a decline of 1.9%, while Latin American carriers fell by 2.5%.
Route-level data reflected changes linked to U.S. trade policy. Traffic on the Asia–North America corridor declined by 1.4% year-on-year in October. While this was an improvement on September, the route remained the only major corridor showing a year-to-date decline of 1.1% over the first ten months of 2025. IATA attributed this to tariffs imposed on Chinese exports.
By comparison, the Asia–Europe corridor recorded growth of 11.7% in October and 10.6% year-to-date, reflecting a redirection of Chinese trade flows toward Europe. Intra-Asia traffic increased by 9.0% in October and 9.4% year-to-date, linked to sourcing diversification toward Asian countries other than China. Transatlantic traffic grew by 2.6% in October, though growth slowed after strong activity earlier in the year, driven by frontloaded shipments ahead of tariff changes.
From January to October 2025, global air cargo demand increased by 3.3%, while international traffic rose by 4.0%.
Cargo capacity expanded faster than demand. Available cargo tonne-kilometres increased by 5.1% year-on-year in October, resulting in a cargo load factor of 47.1%, down 0.5 points year-on-year. Belly-hold capacity on passenger aircraft rose by 6.4% and accounted for 54.3% of international capacity during the first ten months of the year. Capacity on dedicated freighters also grew by 6.4%, but its share declined due to weaker transpacific demand. Airlines redeployed freighter capacity toward Europe–Asia and Europe–North America routes.
Price pressure continued as supply outpaced demand. Average unit revenue declined for the sixth consecutive month, down 4.7% year-on-year in October, reaching US$2.46 per kilogram. Lower fuel prices reduced fuel surcharges. Month-on-month price movements showed limited increases on intra-Asia, Asia–Europe, and North America–Europe routes, while year-on-year trends remained downward.
Looking ahead, macroeconomic indicators remained mixed. Global industrial production increased by 3.7% year-on-year in September, while the World Goods Trade Index rose by 5.3%. "Both indicators confirm that underlying global demand remained firm," IATA said. Manufacturing PMI remained above 50 in October, but the index for new export orders stayed below that threshold. Air cargo growth is expected to continue toward year-end, while early 2026 forecasts remain cautious due to base effects and potential trade policy changes in the EU and the U.S.
Source: Upply
