The latest 2025-2026 orange crop forecast for the São Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt has been updated to 294.81 million 40.8 kg boxes, according to the December 10 release by Fundecitrus. This represents a 3.9 per cent decrease from the September estimate of 306.74 million boxes and 6.3 per cent below the May projection.
The reduction is linked to smaller average fruit size and higher premature fruit drop. Approximately 25.83 million boxes are expected from the Triângulo Mineiro region. By mid-November, 65 per cent of the crop had been harvested, including 99 per cent of Hamlin, Westin, and Ruby, 95 per cent of other early varieties, 85 per cent of Pera, 40 per cent of Valencia and Folha Murcha, and 30 per cent of Natal.
© Fundecitrus
Rainfall deficits influenced fruit development across the belt. From May to November, cumulative rainfall averaged 392 millimeters, 20 per cent below the historical benchmark. The northern region showed the steepest declines, with deficits ranging from 32 per cent to 47 per cent. Only Porto Ferreira exceeded the historical average. Wind gusts above 50 km/h, and in some cases exceeding 62 km/h, contributed to fruit detachment, with Avaré registering gusts of 90 km/h.
Average fruit size estimates were adjusted downward. The overall number of fruits required to fill a box increased from 258 to 265, reducing the average fruit weight from 158 grams to 154 grams. Updated figures include 305 fruits per box for Hamlin, Westin, and Ruby, 272 for other early varieties, 267 for Pera, 248 for Valencia and Folha Murcha, and 248 for Natal.
The projected average fruit drop rate increased from 22 per cent to 23 per cent. Hamlin, Westin, and Ruby rose to 16.9 per cent, other early varieties to 18.5 per cent, Valencia and Folha Murcha to 25.6 per cent, and Natal to 28.5 per cent. Pera remained at 22 per cent. Drop rates were higher in the South, Central, and Southwest sectors, where greening severity is elevated, and lower in the North and Northwest.
The forecast will continue to be updated according to harvest progress. The next revision is scheduled for February 10, 2026, followed by the final estimate on April 10, 2026.
To view the full report, click here.
© FundecitrusFor more information:
Fundecitrus
Tel: +55 16 3301 7000
Email: [email protected]
www.fundecitrus.com.br
