Following challenging seasons, the avocado sector anticipates an improved period ahead. Picking commenced last month, and according to NZ Avocado CEO, Brad Siebert, exports are expected to be "well under way" by now.
Initial assessments suggest a slight decrease in overall industry volumes from last season, yet favorable growing conditions could bolster export pack-outs and fruit quality, potentially matching or surpassing previous seasons. Strong flowering and fruit sets have been observed across key regions during spring. Despite potential impacts from ex-Cyclone Tam in Northland and Whangārei, crop predictions remain consistent with the last harvest.
Export revenue is forecasted to marginally decrease by 0.3% to $107 million by June 2026. Current grower activities include gauging fruit maturity, ensuring export compliance, and engaging with packhouses and exporters in anticipation of the harvest.
The global demand for avocados is on the rise due to consumer interest in healthy fats and plant-based diets, positioning New Zealand to supply during off-peak seasons. With Western Australia projecting a substantial crop for 2025-26, the strategy includes channeling more volumes to North America with reduced exports to Australia's east coast. This aligns with the effort to forge diverse market relationships, which underpins long-term sector growth.
This year witnessed New Zealand serving the most diverse range of countries. Export revenue from Australia surged by 320% to $63 million compared to the previous season. The North American markets showed robust growth in New Zealand's second season of exporting to the region, with Canadian revenue up 619% to $3.8 million and U.S. revenue increasing by 596% to $500,000.
Siebert maintains that proposed tariffs may not significantly impact the American market, given that Mexico, as the principal supplier, and Canada benefit from USMCA exemptions. The new 10% tariff is based on the free on-board sale price with an added US$11.2c/kg duty.
The Asian market's prominence is growing, with revenue climbing 96% to $40 million for the year ending March 2025. The domestic market remains balanced alongside export demands. Over recent decades, approximately 70% of avocados were exported, though local consumption pushed this to nearly 50% in recent seasons. Lower-grade fruit is utilized for avocado oil and other products.
External conditions led to a drop in export volumes over the past seasons, influenced by Cyclones Dovi and Gabrielle. However, improved weather conditions are fostering a large, high-quality crop for the current season, with export volumes increasing 190% to 3.9 million trays by June 30, 2025.
Half of New Zealand's avocado production area is located in the Bay of Plenty, with 45% in Northland.
Source: SunLive
