Yesterday in Paris, the launch of the 2021 apple and pear campaign was hosted by the ANPP, bringing together around 100 professionals from the sector. A long-awaited face-to-face event for the professionals, who were unable to gather last year because of the sanitary crisis.
After a review of the 2020/2021 apple and pear campaign, the 2021/2022 harvest forecasts for France, Europe, and the export market were presented. The event also provided an opportunity to review the state of the industry and organic produce markets.
2020: The level of exports maintained throughout Europe but reduced on the international market
The limited harvest of the last season led to a decrease in exports. Producers chose to save their production for local channels of distribution. The French market was therefore well supplied throughout the season. The loss of export volumes in Europe was minimal, although it has been significantly greater in the Far East, the Middle East, and America. Also, French households have never bought as many apples as they did during this season, despite the unusually high retail prices. Of course, this observation may be biased by the so-called "Covid effect" from which apples have benefited.
Increasing imports for industrial use
On the industrial side, the low volumes of the previous apple campaign paired with a rather exceptional quality of apples increased import volumes. We also observe a steady increase in purchases by compote makers on the free market, reaching 10,000 tonnes per year over the last 3 years.
Apple harvest slightly higher than 2020 figures
On July 1st, the French stock of apples reached 51,300 tons, well below the level of the previous campaign. If the 2020 apple season was marked by a small harvest (1.337 million tonnes), significantly below the average (1.448 million tonnes), the 2021 harvest forecasts do not point towards higher volumes (1.375 million tonnes). Nevertheless, the projected quantities are finally higher than those anticipated. The frost had a significant impact on the French production, affecting the varieties, the regions, and the producers to various extents.
European apple harvest on the rise
On the European level, on the other hand, the expected volumes for the harvest are much higher, at 11.735 million tonnes (against 10.705 million last year). This volume is also greater than the average over the last 10 years (11.249 million). This growth is mainly due to the increased production of Eastern European countries, including Poland (+22% compared to last year with 4.170 million tonnes) and Hungary (+49% compared to the previous year with 520,000 tonnes). Here again, a significant disparity is observed between EU countries, with volume increases of +28% forecast for Spain (543,000 tonnes) and a decrease of the same order for Greece (203,000 tonnes). Italy, on the other hand, shows a decrease of -4% with 2.046 million tonnes expected for this year.
Outside the EU, production will reach 4 million tonnes (+2% compared to 2020) for Turkey, 45,381 million tonnes for China (+3%) and 4,644 million for the USA (-4%).
Some club varieties are more affected than others
The crop forecasts for international varieties in France and Europe (Golden, Gala, Granny, etc.) are slightly up (+4%) compared to last year, but remain in deficit if compared to the average. This is also the case for regional varieties, almost exclusively produced in France. In contrast, club varieties have been more affected by the frost, resulting in an expected harvest of -6% in France compared to the previous campaign. The Pink Lady variety, among others, was particularly affected. Generally speaking, the production of club varieties has been growing, but at a slower rate over the last two years. The Gala variety is growing steadily, while the Granny variety is suffering from a steady erosion of its potential production.
Pears: French campaign heavily impacted
The French pear campaign in 2020 was more decent than the apple campaign, with volumes slightly higher (133,000 tonnes) than the previous campaign and around the average for the last five years (129,000 tonnes). As with apples, consumption was very good, despite high retail prices. Unfortunately this year, the frost hit the pear orchards hard, reducing the expected quantities to 57 000 tonnes. The varieties Guyot and William are the most affected with -71% less tonnage than last year, for an average of -57% of all varieties combined. It is therefore already known that the high prices of the few pears that will be on the market will not compensate for the losses suffered. Some growers have lost as much as 90-95% of their pear crop, with the few remaining fruits only available for the industrial market.
Significant disparities of pear volumes within the EU
Within the 15 members of the EU, a harvest of 1.488 million tonnes is expected, which is 30% less than last year (2.127 million tonnes), with major disparities between countries. Italy has seen its crop fall by 65% (213,000 tonnes) compared to 2020 (611,000 tonnes), while Portugal has seen an increase of 36% with 189,000 tonnes. The Netherlands, Europe's largest pear producer, will produce 325,000 tonnes this year, down 19% from the previous year. In Eastern Europe, on the other hand, the expected volumes are slightly up by 7% with 119,000 tonnes forecast for this year.
While all pear varieties are being affected to different degrees, the Rochas pear is the only one to show an increase of 38% compared to the 2020 campaign.
Outside the EU, the harvest forecasts are slightly up compared to last year with a total volume of 19.873 million tonnes.
An organic offer structured around new varieties
Regarding organic production, although it is hard to come up with estimates due to a lack of data, we do know that it has suffered from frost as much as conventional orchards, if not more. The expected organic apple crop this year is around 65,000 tonnes and 3,100 tonnes of pears for ANPP’s members. It should also be noted that the organic offer being prepared over the next few years is mainly composed of new, specific and qualitative varieties.
Summary
Both apples and pears are expected to present an average European harvest, with apples close to the market balance threshold and pears in substantial shortage. The European potential for the fresh market is equivalent to last year, especially since Poland has announced a quality poor harvest with 60% of the volumes to be processed.
In France and on a European scale, the harvest has been delayed by one to two weeks compared to last year, returning to normal. The volumes of international varieties are barely higher than last year with a return of the Golden, Gala, and Jonagold varieties. The progression of club varieties is quite stable, and the other varieties, most of them Polish, are increasing, but with little influence on the European market since they are mainly intended for the domestic market.
Stocks from old harvests or the southern hemisphere have been absorbed throughout Europe. As for the French apple supply, it remains limited but sufficient this year for the domestic market. On the other hand, a significant deficit is expected for the pears. Apples have a good storage capacity with sizes slightly below normal, such as the Gala. There are some visual flaws due to the frost on some varieties, but other varieties, such as the Gala, have good colors thanks to the lower temperatures. The supply to the industry will be better than last year, with a low stock of European concentrate and therefore a strong demand.
Nevertheless, the growth of the Gala's European potential, which includes many small sizes this year, remains to be monitored. The poor quality of the Polish crop should generate significant flows towards the industry, particularly in Germany, which will not be able to get supplies from their extensive orchards. As for the organic supply, the question arises as to whether demand is growing as fast as the offer. A significant increase (+15%) in the cost of packaging has also been noted, which represents +3 to 5 cents per kilo.
Uncertainties related to external factors still loom over the campaign, such as the availability of the workforce, post-Covid consumer behavior (purchasing power, retail response, local preference, part of pre-packed products, etc.), the consequences of Brexit and the running of harbors and container availability, as well as the cost of shipping.
For more information:
Vincent Guérin
Association Nationale Pommes Poires
7 rue Biscornet - 75012 PARIS
Phone. : +33 (0) 1 53 10 27 80
Fax : +33 (0)1 53 10 27 88
