Stone fruit production in Australia is forecast to increase in marketing year (MY) 2021/22, following a MY 2020/21 season that was impacted by a shortage of labor supply at harvest and export freight logistics challenges borne about by the COVID-19 pandemic. Cherry production is forecast to increase by 11 percent, and peaches and nectarines by five percent.
Increases in production coupled with an expectation of a moderate improvement in labor availability for harvest, and a slight easing of export freight challenges, is anticipated to result in an increase in exports of cherries by 17 percent and 15 percent for peaches and nectarines.
The labor and export freight challenges are expected to continue to impact the forecast MY 2021/22 season. However, these impacts are expected to be lessened by a modest degree with the expectation that by late 2021 COVID-19 vaccination rates in Australia will be much improved, and trigger reduced restrictions domestically and possibly for international travelers.
Increases in production coupled with an expectation of a moderate improvement in labor availability for harvest, and a slight easing of export freight challenges, is anticipated to result in an increase in exports of cherries by 17 percent and 15 percent for peaches and nectarines. The cherry industry is hopeful of a continuation of the federal government International Freight Assistance Mechanism (IFAM) program as was the case in MY 2020/21, to secure air freight for export.
This high value horticultural product was able to cope with air freight costs at over double the pre-pandemic rate and increase the export volume in MY 2020/21, and the trend is expected to continue in the forecast year. For peaches, which are lower value than cherries but also dependent upon air freight, exports are anticipated to remain low in the forecast year after a drop of 36 percent in the MY 2020/21 season.
Nectarine exports in the forecast year are expected to increase moderately after suffering only a moderate five percent decline from the prior year. Nectarine exporters had adjusted to the export freight challenges in MY 2020/21 by focusing on increasing the use of sea freight from around 50 percent of total exports in the prior years to 75 percent. Notwithstanding the continued challenges of sourcing refrigerated containers for sea freight and their further increased cost in recent months, overall peach and nectarine exports are forecast to rise with a particular focus on nectarines via sea freight.
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