The lime market is proving to be just as volatile as always, with the weather and shipping delays causing most of the problems.
"In theory, we have just been through the strong window for Sao Paulo state – but weather conditions, as with most of the world, are not stable, so average quality and volumes have not been at normal levels," said Rob Cullum from Pacific Produce. "Total volumes from Brazil have been running at similar levels to last year for departures, but shipping has created arrivals that are not in line, so volumes are up and down dependent on delays. "The UK takes around 20 containers per week on paper – but this number can change dramatically with diversions due to paperwork or KCB rejections. This is the Brazilian volume; if there is a big diversion, then the UK market can become flooded very fast. Peru and Vietnam are the minority suppliers in the winter months, in the summer, Mexico and Colombia join in, and then with pockets from Morocco and Spain.
"Quality has been very mixed, firstly due to difficult growing conditions, but the main factor is shipping delays, the average delay this year is close to two weeks, and in many cases four weeks, which lime cannot handle. The size profile moves during the year by region, it is never truly in balance, at some points some areas have a large % of smalls, and then with some rain that can suddenly flip to high % of large fruit, this is something that we have seen increase the last few years, again, weather conditions play a big part in this."
© Pacific Produce
Open market prices
January and February were record highs for most weeks – this is related to the shipping issues mainly.
"Now we are seeing lower prices, but also the market is split between on-time fruit and delayed fruit. To estimate what will happen in the future is a dangerous game with limes, as it can move very fast in either direction and sometimes counter to what the data tells you.
Average retail prices in the UK have been too low compared to both Europe and the USA, the two big import markets – this has been an issue for the last few years, predominantly because the UK retail sector likes to keep a flat price year-round. Growers, as with many products, face a lot of inflation. This is the challenge that we face, finding the fair price for all in a highly volatile item that is not a commodity and is a niche purchase compared to other citrus."
Demand at the moment is steady for this time of year, but as always, Rob is looking forward to when the weather improves, as lime is a sunshine/party item, so spring is welcome.
Rising costs and changing demand
"Shipping from Brazil has been a challenge already for more than six months, and the Middle East situation has not altered that for the moment. Will it make it worse? – I guess we have to wait and see. Costs have gone up already, which is not great, and fuel surcharges don't just affect shipping but also inland haulage. Will we see an empty container issue as we did during the pandemic? That could become an issue.
As for consumption, general inflation across all products will probably come, but also for lime, the disposable income part is very important, as fewer drinking opportunities can damage consumption. To counter that the World Cup can bring demand and also the tendency for people to either stay at home in the holidays or go to Europe as opposed to Egypt/ Turkey or long haul could provide respite for EU consumption."
For more information:
Robert Cullum
Pacific Produce
Tel: +44 (0) 1865877801
Email: [email protected]
www.pacificproduce.co.uk
