Landed apple stocks in India remain moderate from recent arrivals, primarily Polish Royal Gala and other red varieties from select European origins and Iran, says Chiranjeevi A R, CEO of Scion Agricos. "Polish apples are gaining the most right now since their shipments were already en route before Middle East disruptions intensified. Over the past few weeks, European shipments had a break due to Christmas and New Year holidays, so those major volumes are expected to arrive shortly."
Chiranjeevi highlights delays building along Red Sea shipping routes and Gulf transshipment hubs like Jebel Ali, with Turkey, China, and Mediterranean exporters facing the biggest setbacks. "Iran has announced a 40-day export halt, adding further pressure, while Gulf-bound shipments deal with longer transits or potential rerouting. Trade discussions center on delays rather than large-scale diversions so far," he notes.
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"Wholesale prices have climbed steadily from USD 32.5 to 36 per 18 kg box in recent weeks, supported by Ramadan demand spilling over from nearby markets. The market anticipates another 10-20% rise in the short term if current logistics disruptions continue and arrivals stay constrained," Chiranjeevi explains.
Importer sentiment leans cautiously optimistic. "Those with landed stock benefit from firmer prices, but caution prevails around freight increases, already observed for Middle East routes from India, and unpredictable schedules. Everyone's monitoring shipping developments closely."
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Logistics uncertainty and freight volatility rank as top risks, echoing challenges from last year's Red Sea disruptions and COVID-era bottlenecks, Chiranjeevi shares. "Apples hold up better than most fruit, but extended shipping still cuts into shelf life. So importers would prioritize strict cold chain monitoring and quick market turnover over holding large volumes."
The next 2-4 weeks should see stable demand meet tight supply if logistics disruptions linger. "That scenario will keep prices firm, though a wave of delayed shipments arriving together could trigger a temporary correction. Much hinges on route stabilization. From an importer's perspective, the key right now is balancing opportunity from stronger prices with the risk of unpredictable logistics," Chiranjeevi concludes.
For more information:
Chiranjeevi A R
Scion Agricos
Tel: +91 81 97 696 234
[email protected]
www.scionagricos.com
