World production for 2022/23 is forecast down 3.9 million metric tons (tons) to 78.8 million as a weather‐affected crop in China more than offsets gains in the European Union and Turkey. Exports are projected down 300,000 tons to 6.3 million on lower supplies in China and South Africa.
China production is forecast down 5.0 million tons to 41.0 million as high temperatures during bloom reduced fruit set in the top producing provinces of Shaanxi and Shandong. Acreage is also contracting as low market returns and government encouragement of grain production prompts some farmers to cut down trees. Some growers are replacing older trees with new varieties, but output from these new plantings is not yet sufficient to offset declines stemming from tree removals. Exports are expected to drop 20 percent to 800,000 tons as reduced supplies shrink shipments to several key markets, especially Indonesia and Bangladesh. Imports are projected up 25,000 tons to 100,000 on greater shipments from New Zealand.
EU production is forecast up 500,000 tons to 12.8 million as France and Italy rebound from last year's frost damage and leading producer Poland continues to boost output. Greater supplies are anticipated to lift exports 100,000 tons to 1.3 million and raise consumption nearly 400,000 tons to 11.8 million. Rising cold storage costs are expected to divert a larger amount of lower value fruit to processing rather than holding for exports. Imports are projected down 11,000 tons to 320,000 as greater domestic supplies dampen import demand.
U.S. production is expected to rise 158,000 tons to 4.5 million, a slight reversal after back‐to‐back annual declines, as a bumper crop in Michigan more than offsets losses in Washington from a wet, windy, and cold spring. USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) surveyed industry and published a U.S. forecast for apple production in the August 2022 Crop Production report. Despite higher supplies, exports are forecast down 53,000 tons to 670,000 for a third straight year of declines on reduced Washington output. Imports are expected up 10,000 tons to 115,000 on higher shipments from New Zealand.
Peru forecast to become world’s top grape exporter
Chile’s position as the world’s top table grape exporter is expected to be challenged by Peru in 2022/23. Chile has been the leading exporter for decades, but in 2022/23, Peru is forecast to exceed Chile in production for the second time in 3 years, and in exports for the first time.
Chile production is forecast down to 737,000 metric tons, declining for the eighth time in 10 years in contrast to Peru production which has not declined since at least 2001/02 and is projected up again in 2022/23 at 766,000 tons. Click here to read the full report.
Source: apps.fas.usda.gov
