By Mark Greenberg
US: Decline in Chilean grape arrivals
The east coast tonnage is down by only 2.2% through the same date last year while
tonnage to the west coast is down by 5.9%. This decrease in loadings to the US comes in a season where cumulative Chilean table grape exports to all markets through February 24 rose by 3.6% to 318 952 metric tons. There does not seem to be appreciably fewer grapes in Chile this season. But, rather, Chilean shippers have found other markets. Loadings to Europe (all destinations, including the UK) are up 22% over last season and loadings to Asian markets are up by over 28%. Shipments to Latin American markets are flat year on year.
Turning to arrivals, Chilean table grape arrivals on the East Coast through Week 9 will be 4% lighter than last season through the same week. But this will be reversed in Week 10 (if only momentarily) when Chilean total cases arrived will surpass last season by 3%. An early Thompson Seedless harvest in Chile accounts for this season’s catch-up in Week 10 when 1.16 million cases of Thompsons will arrive – a week that saw only 331 thousand cases arrive last season. But the catch-up in volume will be short-lived. Expectations are that the Chilean Thompson Seedless departures will decline substantially after Week 10, ending the season two weeks earlier than last year.
Red Seedless:
In the red seedless market, the quick end to Flame arrivals has left the spot market
peculiarly strong, but with very little fruit around to take advantage of the price. Of
course, it is the very shortage of free fruit that has created a strong spot market.
With promotions on Flames continuing through the next week or two at US$ 16 – 18 - which seemed like a good idea at the time as early March usually sees a lot of Flame arrivals - but with insufficient product available to service all those promotions, the market has been heating up as sellers have become buyers seeking to cover their obligations.
The Flame spot market today is US$ 22-24 for 700 and US$ 20 – 22 for 500 (if you
can find any). But not all arriving fruit will obtain that price for the grower. Fruit will
be sold this week in a US$ 18 – 24 range as promotions will be honored (more or less).
Red seedless grapes will continue to hold their value. The last of the Flames (if the
condition holds) will sell at US$ 20 – 24 while the market waits for Crimson volumes to ramp up. Crimson arrivals will continue to grow over the next three weeks, and the real surge in volumes is expected in Weeks 12-13 after the expected Thompson surge has subsided. A good volume of fruit is likely to make it in for Easter promotional business, but there will be a lot of Crimsons left to sell after this year’s especially early Easter.
In the coming two weeks, expect to see Crimsons solidly at US$ 18-20 (mostly US$ 20) for 500’s – driven by promotional activity, and US$ 20-22 (and higher) for 700’s driven by spot market demand. Beyond Easter, the price will depend exclusively on the weekly arrivals and the holding quality of the fruit.
White Seedless:
By Week 10, the heavy part of Chile’s Thompson Seedless harvest will have been
completed and Week 11 will show relatively light loadings from Chile. Week 12 (the
last week to ship prior to the USDA/AMS Marketing Order for Table Grapes) will
be a clean-up week and few Thompsons will depart thereafter. Accordingly,
Thompson Seedless arrival volumes are expected to continue to be heavy through
Week 12 with a fairly abrupt decline thereafter. Few Thompsons are likely to seek
US entry beyond the start of the Marketing Order.
In Week 9, Thompson Seedless prices started to feel the pressure of the
increased arrivals and edged downward with spot prices for Thompson Seedless at
US$ 16 – 18 (some US$ 20) for 500’s and US$ 18 – 20 (some higher) for 700’s.
Promotional business is being taken at US$ 18 in Weeks 10 and 11.
In light of the perennial heavy Thompson arrivals in the lead up to the Marketing
Order and the resulting price pressure, the objective of most sellers will be to
triage and ration fruit into the market, holding the strongest arrivals for sale after
the arrival bubble comes and goes. If product has strong legs and product arriving
in the three peak arrival weeks can be sold in a five week window, prices will remain steady in today’s range.
Thompson Seedless are expected to hold in the US$ 16-18 range for 500’s and
US$ 18-20 for 700’s for the next while (especially if promotional activity absorbs
any significant volume and if some volume is reserved for later sale). True storage
fruit will do very well this season with any sales extending into April.
Black Seedless:
Black Seedless grape prices have come down over the past few weeks. However,
market preference has shifted to Autumn Royals. Today, Autumn Royals are selling
at US$ 18-20 for 500`s and US$ 20-22 for 700`s. Generic black seedless are
selling US$ 2 below.
Red Globes:
Light volumes of Red Globes are cashing in on the dearth of red seedless grapes in
the market. Red Globes on the spot market through Week 9 were selling at US$
14-16 on 500 and US$ 16-18 on 700.