Researchers at Wageningen Economic Research in the Netherlands recently did a model-based scenario study. They quantified the medium-term effects of the war in Ukraine on agricultural production, trade flows, market prices, and food security. They concluded that conflict has a minimal effect on food security in the European Union.
The calculated scenarios focus on the macroeconomic impact's possible consequences and the effect on agricultural production in Ukraine. They also looked at the impact of trade sanctions against Russia, and the related higher energy prices.
From a food security perspective, it can be concluded that there is sufficient food at the global level. However, higher food prices may become problematic for the low-income part of the population. A large part of these people's diets consists of grain products.
Some countries, like Egypt, Turkey, and the Middle East, rely heavily on Ukrainian and Russian grain imports. They will experience some food availability pressure. For the European Union, where food availability is not an issue, the impact on food security is minimal.
The Dutch Agriculture, Nature, and Food Quality Ministry commissioned Wageningen Economic Research to do this study. omaakte het rapport in opdracht van het ministerie van LNV. You can read the complete report here.