Prices for mushrooms in Ukraine have reached unprecedented levels. Now producers give a mushroom to the buyers at the prices of 75-80 UAH (2,3-2,5 euro) per kilogram, and at retail the price for a mushroom reaches 115 UAH \ kg (3,7 euro\kg). The second grade and open mushroom are sold from farms at prices from 40-50 UAH / kg.(1,4-1,8 euro\kg)
In fact, the mushroom was the leader in price increase among the most popular positions in the fruit and vegetable department. Potatoes, tomatoes, cucumbers, other vegetables and fruits went up by 10-50% compared to mid-February. The price of mushrooms has doubled. Even after Easter, when demand and prices tend to fall due to the end of Lent and the increase in the supply of seasonal vegetables, prices have not gone down.
The reasons for the rise are clear - there is very little supply of mushrooms on the market. Immediately after the start of the war all composting plants stopped operations, including the largest Agaris plant in the Ternopil region. Resumption of production began only after 2 weeks. And right now farmers could collect mushrooms from these "not produced" composts. According to the UMDIS Mushroom Information Agency, as of the end of April, no more than 20% of what would be in peacetime is offered on the market.
In the first half of May, a gradual increase in the supply of mushrooms is expected, but it will remain very, very limited. So in May, mushroom prices are likely to remain high. But in June, the supply of mushrooms will increase sharply, as the market will begin to enter the mushrooms, the start of compost for which was given in late April. And at the end of June 2022, we expect that the market will offer about half the amount of mushrooms inherent in this period in peacetime.
A halved supply in normal times would be a reason to expect sky-high prices, but on the demand side we are also seeing a huge reduction. There are reports of 17 million displaced people, including more than 5 million who have moved abroad. It is likely that up to 8 million people will leave Ukraine by June. And the majority of those who go abroad are women and children, namely women, it is believed that they prefer more "complex" dishes containing mushrooms. In addition, even those who remain in Ukraine are likely to reduce their demand for mushrooms due to the need to save. The closure of a large part of public catering establishments is also not the least factor in the decline in demand - we do not have accurate information, but most likely about half of restaurants in Ukraine do not work.
So will the prices of mushrooms in June be high enough to cover the cost of growing and making a profit? This largely depends on how events develop at the front. Accordingly - how many people and businesses will be able to return to normal life. Secondly, it will depend on the economic support of Western partners and its distribution by the Ukrainian government - whether the population will have enough money to ensure a high level of consumption. It will depend on the expectations and mood in society - the better and more optimistic the mood, the greater the demand.
Of course, prices will depend on the offer. As we have indicated, by the end of May, shipments of compost from compost productions will reach about 50% of the normal level.
In our opinion, if Ukraine wins in May and the country becomes safe enough, the supply of mushrooms will be insufficient and prices will be high. If the victory has to wait a little longer, the offer may be excessive, and prices will be bad.
The last two times, those who bet on an optimistic scenario have received significant gains. Those who decided in March 2020, during the most severe quarantine of COVID, to continue working - broke the jackpot in June 2020, which had record prices. The same thing happened in April this year - those who were able to work in March and were not afraid to load up with compost, received significant profits in April.
For more information:
Maksym Yenchenko
Information agency "UMDIS"
Tel: +380-67-506-45-21
Email: iaumdis@gmail.com
www.umdis.org