The price of Chinese garlic recently showed a steady rise, but large volumes of fresh garlic will arrive on the market in late May. How will this affect the garlic market?
1. The main reason for the high garlic price is that the overall surface area devoted to garlic plantation decreased by 35% in comparison with last year. The overall supply volume greatly declined this year, which in turn pushed the price up.
2. The production volume of garlic in the season of 2018-2019 was smaller than in previous years. This is the key to the high price in May. Henan and Shandong are major garlic production areas. Most farmers there grow garlic outside. The peak of harvest season occurs during middle to late May as a result of weather conditions in production areas. Furthermore, the harvest season occurs simultaneously in many production areas, which means that supply rapidly grows and the price declines.
3. The garlic from south China is already ripe and already entered the market. The current market conditions are stable and fluctuations are regular. Those conditions are likely to change when fresh garlic enters the market in large volumes in late May. The price will then drop.
In the end, the price of garlic is relatively stable and unlikely to drop much.