U.S. President Donald Trump is once again threatening to impose import duties on eight European countries, including the Netherlands. These countries have rallied behind Greenland by, among other things, sending troops to the autonomous region under Danish responsibility. The additional 10 per cent levy is set to take effect from 1 February and could rise to 25 per cent by June, although it remains uncertain whether this will ultimately go ahead.
In any case, Belgium is not among the countries on which Trump wants to introduce additional import duties. This could soon create the unusual situation in which products from the Netherlands face significantly higher tariffs than Belgian products. Could this benefit Belgian exporters focused on the United States? "I certainly do not see it that way," says Luc Vanoirbeek, general secretary of the VBT. "On the contrary, I believe it should be a motivation to unite further as Europe."
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"Perhaps in purely numerical terms it could benefit some Belgian exporters in the end, but that would be very minimal. Moreover, as a country, we export relatively very little to the U.S. Ultimately, I see this more as undermining stable trade relations and creating structural uncertainty. In the end, everyone suffers from this, whether that is Belgium, the Netherlands, or the U.S. itself."
Fresh fruit and vegetable exports limited and declining
"On that front, I would like to clarify two points further," he continues. "Firstly, the U.S. market actually has rather limited significance for us. To make that concrete: Belgium exported about 408 tons of fruit and vegetables to the U.S. in 2025, equivalent to almost €660 thousand in sales. That figure is not yet complete, as the final two months still need to be included, but it gives a good indication of the order of magnitude. By comparison, in 2023 exports still amounted to 670 tons worth more than €1.5 million. That represents a clear decline, which we have seen continue structurally for around 10 years."
A deeper look into the past makes that picture even clearer. Between 2015 and 2019, Belgium exported an average of around 1,800 tons per year to the United States, worth some €3 million. Today, roughly a quarter of that remains. "This shows that, in practice, this outlet has become quite small for us," Luc explains. "For certain companies, these exports can still play a role, for example, when it comes to specific long-life products or particular facilities. In value terms, this is not negligible, but within the overall picture, it remains relatively limited. The U.S., especially for the fresh produce sector, is no longer a core export market for us."
What about the import side? The European Commission remains committed to dialogue and de-escalation in the conflict with the U.S. over Greenland and potential import tariffs. At the same time, the EU has countermeasures ready should the U.S. proceed with the tariffs. These range from import duties to a heavy 'anti-coercive instrument', although there is no consensus within the EU. If these countermeasures are implemented, should they be a cause for concern? "They will inevitably have repercussions, not only directly but also indirectly. If we look purely at what we import from the U.S. ourselves, those volumes are actually completely negligible. The real risk lies not so much in the trade flows themselves, but in the broader impact on trade relations and the general economic climate."
Greater concerns about geopolitical uncertainty
"This is what really worries me," he explains. "The broader development behind all this. The constant return to the law of the jungle and the right of the strongest is a particularly negative development for the global economy. That kind of thinking undermines stable trade relations and creates structural uncertainty."
"I therefore hope there will be a strong and well-considered response. Simply making concessions or trying to resolve everything through financial compensation has already shown in the past that it does not offer a sustainable solution. At the same time, one must recognise that a harsh counter-reaction could escalate into a confrontation with unpredictable consequences. That is precisely why a certain degree of caution is needed."
Time of the 'big friend' is over
Nevertheless, Luc believes that these developments are further strengthening solidarity within Europe. "There is a growing sense that countries need to act together and present a united front. This marks a clear shift from the past. The days of speaking about a natural 'big friend' are over. That relationship has clearly changed, and tensions will continue to exist in the future, possibly with direct consequences for trade."
The figures underline this evolution. Total tonnage imported from the U.S. has fallen from 13,000 to just 815 tons over the past 10 years. These are no longer large volumes. There was also a sharp drop around 2020, from 10,600 tons to around 2,500 tons. "This indicates that there has long been a conscious move to reduce dependence on that market and shift focus elsewhere. Many players are now starting to realise this, and that dynamic appears to be continuing."
For more information:
Luc Vanoirbeek
Verbond van Belgische Tuinbouwcoöperaties (VBT)
[email protected]
www.vbt.eu
