Following the U.S. Supreme Court ruling that President Donald Trump's global tariffs were unlawful, the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa expects the U.S. to implement a 15 per cent tariff on all imports.
Wandile Sihlobo, chief economist at Agbiz, said a 15 per cent tariff would replace the previous 30 per cent rate applied in recent months. "If this is a new possibility, then it will bode well for South Africa. The 15% tariff will be a great relief from the 30% we have struggled with in the past few months."
He added that uncertainty remains as the U.S. administration explores options to maintain higher tariff levels. "For us in South Africa's agriculture, our competitors in the U.S. market faced much lower tariffs, around 10%, and managed to take our market share in some products."
The U.S. accounts for about 4 per cent of South Africa's agricultural exports. Key products include citrus, berries, grapes, fruit juices, apples, pears, apricots, and nuts.
During the 90-day pause on higher tariffs in 2025, exporters increased shipments in the second quarter. Exports cooled later in the year. Agricultural exports to the U.S. declined 11 per cent year on year in the third quarter of 2025 to US$144 million (R2.3 billion). In the fourth quarter, exports fell 39 per cent to US$81 million (R1.2 billion).
On an annual basis, agricultural exports to the U.S. totalled US$504 million (R8 billion) in 2025, down 3 per cent from the previous year. Sihlobo said the limited annual decline reflects stronger second-quarter volumes and noted that 2026 will provide a clearer indication of tariff impacts.
Francois Rossouw, CEO of the Southern African Agri Initiative, said the ruling introduces both opportunity and risk. "If it leads to a rollback of tariffs and a return to predictable, rules-based trade, it could strengthen export prospects for products like citrus, wine, nuts and fruit by restoring stability in the U.S. market; however, if it triggers prolonged legal and political uncertainty in the United States, that volatility will continue to distort pricing, contracts and planning cycles for farmers who operate on long-term production decisions and depend on consistent access to global markets," he said.
Source: IOL
