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ProHass expects a decline in Peruvian avocado production, as well as smaller sizes

Peru's current avocado season is marked by significant challenges, including an expected drop of between 25% and 30% in the production compared to the previous season, according to Juan Carlos Paredes, president of the Association of Hass Avocado Producers and Exporters of Peru (Prohass). This reduction is a consequence of adverse weather conditions, including high temperatures during the flowering and fruit setting periods, which have been exacerbated by the El Niño phenomenon, which caused temperatures to rise by 4º to 5ºC. As a result, the fruit's sizes have also been reduced by 20% to 30%. "Therefore, in this campaign, we are obtaining small and medium-sized fruits, especially in the north of Peru. Regarding the markets, it would be good if other countries produced larger sizes, but if Mexico, Colombia and South Africa have similar sizes to ours, there could be a great supply of medium and small sizes, which could affect prices. Therefore, if there is a higher demand than supply for certain calibers, prices may tend to fall," he says.

Despite these challenges, Peruvian avocados are expected to be well-received in key markets such as the United States and Europe. Some producers are delaying the harvest to allow the fruit to grow in size, which would result in a less concentrated supply and be beneficial for the product's reception in international markets.

Besides the fruit's sizes, another challenge mentioned by Paredes is the greater presence of pests such as the Fiorinia scale (Fiorinia fioriniae), fostered by high temperatures. Although the larger producers have this pest under control, it represents an ongoing concern, especially for smaller growers. Prohass can provide technical assistance to help manage this problem.

Regarding the markets, consumption is on the rise in the United States, which could be beneficial for Peruvian exports, especially since Mexico also reports having small sizes. The prospect is that the United States will account for a quarter of Peruvian avocado exports, which entails a significant increase compared to last year. Meanwhile, exports to Europe are expected to remain manageable, and Asia is emerging as a growing market, with a 79% increase compared to the previous year.

Lastly, Paredes mentioned that Peru is in the process of opening new markets, such as Malaysia, and consolidating its presence in already established markets through promotions in Europe and the United States. In the face of the arrival of the La Niña phenomenon, preventive measures are being taken, especially in the south of the country, where there could be a shortage of rainfall.

In summary, although there are significant challenges ahead in the current avocado season in Peru due to adverse weather conditions and the presence of pests, there is optimism regarding the fruit's reception in international markets and the potential for growth in new markets.


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