The timing of Hurricane Ian is not unlike that of Hurricane Irma in September of 2017 in that it struck before the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) crop forecast was released in October, but after the data collection process was already completed for the forecast. Therefore, the USDA forecast will not take Hurricane Ian’s impacts into account until the first update of the season is released on Dec. 9. It will likely be even later before the full impact of the storm becomes clear. As such, this article takes a retrospective look at the 2021–22 season as we move forward in the 2022–23 season.
Brazil is the leading supplier to the U.S. orange juice market. Florida and Mexico’s share of the market is much less and nearly equal.
(Source: Economic and Market Research Department of the Florida Department of Citrus)
With tree numbers continuing to decline, the initial USDA forecast released in October 2021 for the 2021–22 season was that the Florida orange crop would be 47 million boxes. As the season progressed, a mild but destructive freeze struck in late January that caused some fruit damage. Given the mild weather that had occurred before the freeze, trees were already entering the bloom stage. Therefore, the freeze caused significant damage to emerging blooms. A strong dry period followed, so a second bloom did not materialize. This suggested that the 2022–23 crop would not be an improvement over its predecessor.
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