The first 2022-2023 orange crop forecast update for the São Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt published on September 12, 2022, by Fundecitrus stands at 314.09 million boxes of 40.8 kg each.
That figure represents a decrease of 2.86 million boxes in relation to the initial estimate published in May this year and corresponds to -0.9%. Approximately 22.97 million boxes of the total crop are expected to be produced in the Triângulo Mineiro.
The reason for that reduction is the low rainfall volume in the last months. Although the current scenario is more favorable in comparison to last year’s, due to a higher precipitation index and a better rainfall distribution, the volume was well below historical average.
The projected fruit drop rate decreases from 20.0% to 19.80% in average, all varieties considered. The drop rate distributed among varieties shows an updated 10.80% (-0.70 percentage point in relation to the projection in May this year) for Hamlin, Westin and Rubi, and 11.00% (- 1.00 percentage point for other early varieties).
Drop rate for the other varieties remain unchanged due to the low volume of fruit harvested.