François Bellivier, Capexo:

Mexico: Origin of the adjustment for the 2022-2023 avocado campaign on the European market?

The end of the campaign is near for all the origins currently present on the avocado market: Colombia, Kenya, South Africa and of course, Peru which represented 80% of the offer last week. “The volumes are decreasing. We now have mostly large calibers and Kenya will end the season earlier than usual,” explains François Bellivier, development manager at Capexo.

A possible shortage in October
Some supply from Chile has been shipped already but the volumes have not reached Europe yet. “The offer should start growing again in about a month, around mid-October. Mexico should have started shipping as well, but in the meantime, the volumes could be quite low in the coming weeks, or even lacking at the beginning of October.”

The high prices could cause the market to collapse
A lack of supply usually means high prices which can, beyond a certain threshold, block consumption and completely destabilize the market. “It will also be the start of the campaign when avocados usually are not of the best quality yet. If prices are also too high, consumers can easily turn away from the product. The European market is attractive so the operators want to send their merchandise but we might end up with large volumes and a consumption that is sluggish, and this would cause the market to collapse.” 

The Mexican origin could strengthen the offer on the European market
This year, however, the situation could be completely different. “At the moment, the European market is almost as good as the American market. The value of the dollar has also changed since it was at 1USD for 1.17€ last year and 1USD for 1€ this year. Many operators will be tempted to act like traders and Mexico could finally be sending more merchandise to Europe than last year. The Mediterranean origins will probably be much less present this year on the market. This would leave some space for the merchandise from Mexico, which would be the origin of adjustment, according to forecasters. But some unknown factors could still influence the market, such as freight prices and the evolution of the USD/€ parity. Not to mention that Americans are very good at reviving their consumption.”

For more information: 
François Bellivier
Phone: +33 1 41 73 23 00  
Mobile: +33 6 75 03 76 54      

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